Handicapping Tip #4 - Workouts
The last few weeks I taken time to talk about the race itself. Today, and next week I want to spend some time talking about workouts. Official morning workouts are only part of the preparation that a trainers does with a horse leading up to a race, but the official morning workouts are the only gauge we as the general public are given to figure out how a horse is doing since his/her last race. How often do horses work in the morning? What are fast or slow workouts? Do certain trainers work horses faster than others? These are just a few questions I will answer today in Part 1 of our talk on workouts.
How often do horses work in the morning?
A horse will work officially about once a week leading into a race. Most trainer will put their final official work into a horse no later than five days prior to a race. Coming out of that race a trainer may plan to run that same horse back in a month. Generally speaking a trainer will put two works into a horse if he is given a horse a month between races. Your top horses are generally on very strict workout regimens, as they will run less often and their workouts are part of a schedule that a trainer has set up to have their horse in top condition when they run each and every race. As you go down the class ladder horses will have different workout patterns or regimens depending upon how fit each horse is. Lack of known morning activity could be a sign something is not quite right with a horse. With horses who are racing fit they may not need as many official works. Lower claiming type horses may not have any official workouts, they just run. This will vary with who is training the horse, so it is important for you the handicapper to know the trainer and his/her patterns as to how frequently or infrequently they work their horses.
What are fast and slow workouts?
The majority of works recorded range from 3 to 7 furlongs in length. These times are what I would consider to be an average workout time in Southern California; :36 to :37 for 3f, :48 to :49 for 4f, 1:00 to 1:01 for 5f, 1:12 to 1:13 for 6f and 1:24 to 1:25 for 7f. It is important to familiarize yourself with the trainer and how fast he/she works their horses.
Do some trainer work their horses faster than other trainer?
The answer is yes and it is your job as the handicapper to identify these trainers. If a trainer that works his horses on the slow side has a horse that goes 6f in 1:10 or 1:11 you may want to take note of that horse. It could be the horse is just showing his/her her real ability or maybe a trainer has made some equipment change. Trainers have regular exercises riders that they work with and trust to make sure that their horses are ready for a top try in the afternoon and not leaving their best on the track in the mornings. Trainers give these exercise riders instructions on how fast a horse should go in a particular work. They may not hit the time exactly, but it will be done within a reasonable approximation. Examples of trainers who work their horse fast in Southern California are Bob Baffert, Brian Koriner and Mel Stute. Examples of trainers who work their horses slow are Ron McAnally, Mike Mitchell and Bill Spawr.
General Point
Knowing the trainer is a big part of this equation they have certain patterns and or styles that show up when a horse performs well and when a horse performs poorly. So make sure you are familiar with who is training a horse, it could tip you off on a longshot who is primed for a big effort.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier.
The Formulator gives you the ability to go and check how a trainer has trained horses in the past. With a couple of clicks of the mouse you can get a list of horses who meet the same criteria as the horse you are looking at today. With a little research you can easily find out a trainers tendencies when it comes to how he/she trains a horse leading into a race.
Personal Conclusion
How often, how fast and who is doing the training is a big part of analyzing official morning workouts. These official workouts are visible to the public, but are only a small part of what a trainer does in order to have a horse ready for a big try in the afternoon. A handicapper needs to be familiar with these and other key components of workouts, that we will discuss next week.
www.southerncalracing.com
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
RACE RESULTS : TWO MORE INTO BREEDERS' CUP AND THE CHAMP ARRIVES IN SOCAL
Yesterday's Results
I went 0 for 3 with my selections and for the first time since Opening Day I failed to release a winner on the day. Of my three selections only Tybalt hit the board as he flew late to finish second in the Oak Tree Mile. In the early Pick 4 I suggested I only used two horses in the fourth race and they ran one-two, with Tizzy's Tune returning $43 on the win and the exacta returned $46 for a buck. I hope that you were able to take advantage and cash a win or exacta ticket in the fourth race. I received an email from a member and he relayed how he had cashed a win bet on Cost of Freedom on Saturday, but also cashed exactas in the races I released Cadillac and Tiago who both finished second. I did not suggest exactas in those races, but he was able to find value with my selections in his own way. Good job. I hope that you had a successful first week at Oak Tree and here is looking forward to the Pick 6 carry over on Wednesday.
Handicapping Point
Yesterday, Tizzy's Tune was a great example of hidden class as she lost by a neck to multiple grade one winner Intangaroo in an allowance race earlier in the year at Santa Anita going six and a half furlongs, which just happened to be the same distance as yesterday's race. Obviously since they have met up earlier in the year they have gone their separate ways, but Tizzy's Tune did show the ability to be competitive with a filly that subsequently went on to win three grade one races all over the country and she warranted a look versus yesterday's group.
Street Hero takes Norfolk Stakes
Alex Solis will be the first to admit that his ride on Street Hero in Sunday's $250,000 Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita was not pretty. “I think I got stopped about 10 times,” he said. The mission was accomplished, though. Street Hero overcame traffic on the final turn to win the Grade 1 Norfolk by three-quarters of a length over Midshipman in a prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile here on Oct. 25. Street Hero entered the Norfolk as a maiden and emerged from the race as a BC Juvenile contender. The Norfolk was part of the Breeders' Cup's Win and You're In program, assuring Street Hero of an automatic berth, subject to entry fees.
Hyperbaric takes Oak Tree Mile
Hyperbaric gave jockey Garrett Gomez the 3,000th winner of his career Sunday in the $200,000 Oak Tree Mile Stakes. Another career milestone could await Gomez if Hyperbaric starts in the Breeders' Cup Mile here on Oct. 25, a race that Gomez won at Belmont Park in 2005 with Artie Schiller. Hyperbaric won his first graded stakes in the Grade 2 Oak Tree Mile, wearing down pacesetter Tropic Storm in early stretch and holding off a late run from Tybalt to prevail by a neck. Tropic Storm, who set early fractions of 23.82 and 47.81 seconds, finished third in the field of eight. Hyperbaric ($5.20) was timed in 1:33.62. The Oak Tree Mile was part of the Breeders' Cup Win and You're In program, giving Hyperbaric an automatic berth to the BC Mile, subject to entry fees. Trainer Julio Canani would not commit Hyperbaric to the BC Mile after Sunday's race. “We'll play it by ear,” he said.
The champ is here
For those of you who were not watching TVG yesterday afternoon you missed the arrival of Curlin at Ontario Airport about 45 minutes from Santa Anita. Curlin will train at Santa Anita as he prepares for what will hopefully be a showdown with Big Brown in the Classic.
www.southerncalracing.com
I went 0 for 3 with my selections and for the first time since Opening Day I failed to release a winner on the day. Of my three selections only Tybalt hit the board as he flew late to finish second in the Oak Tree Mile. In the early Pick 4 I suggested I only used two horses in the fourth race and they ran one-two, with Tizzy's Tune returning $43 on the win and the exacta returned $46 for a buck. I hope that you were able to take advantage and cash a win or exacta ticket in the fourth race. I received an email from a member and he relayed how he had cashed a win bet on Cost of Freedom on Saturday, but also cashed exactas in the races I released Cadillac and Tiago who both finished second. I did not suggest exactas in those races, but he was able to find value with my selections in his own way. Good job. I hope that you had a successful first week at Oak Tree and here is looking forward to the Pick 6 carry over on Wednesday.
Handicapping Point
Yesterday, Tizzy's Tune was a great example of hidden class as she lost by a neck to multiple grade one winner Intangaroo in an allowance race earlier in the year at Santa Anita going six and a half furlongs, which just happened to be the same distance as yesterday's race. Obviously since they have met up earlier in the year they have gone their separate ways, but Tizzy's Tune did show the ability to be competitive with a filly that subsequently went on to win three grade one races all over the country and she warranted a look versus yesterday's group.
Street Hero takes Norfolk Stakes
Alex Solis will be the first to admit that his ride on Street Hero in Sunday's $250,000 Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita was not pretty. “I think I got stopped about 10 times,” he said. The mission was accomplished, though. Street Hero overcame traffic on the final turn to win the Grade 1 Norfolk by three-quarters of a length over Midshipman in a prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile here on Oct. 25. Street Hero entered the Norfolk as a maiden and emerged from the race as a BC Juvenile contender. The Norfolk was part of the Breeders' Cup's Win and You're In program, assuring Street Hero of an automatic berth, subject to entry fees.
Hyperbaric takes Oak Tree Mile
Hyperbaric gave jockey Garrett Gomez the 3,000th winner of his career Sunday in the $200,000 Oak Tree Mile Stakes. Another career milestone could await Gomez if Hyperbaric starts in the Breeders' Cup Mile here on Oct. 25, a race that Gomez won at Belmont Park in 2005 with Artie Schiller. Hyperbaric won his first graded stakes in the Grade 2 Oak Tree Mile, wearing down pacesetter Tropic Storm in early stretch and holding off a late run from Tybalt to prevail by a neck. Tropic Storm, who set early fractions of 23.82 and 47.81 seconds, finished third in the field of eight. Hyperbaric ($5.20) was timed in 1:33.62. The Oak Tree Mile was part of the Breeders' Cup Win and You're In program, giving Hyperbaric an automatic berth to the BC Mile, subject to entry fees. Trainer Julio Canani would not commit Hyperbaric to the BC Mile after Sunday's race. “We'll play it by ear,” he said.
The champ is here
For those of you who were not watching TVG yesterday afternoon you missed the arrival of Curlin at Ontario Airport about 45 minutes from Santa Anita. Curlin will train at Santa Anita as he prepares for what will hopefully be a showdown with Big Brown in the Classic.
www.southerncalracing.com
Sunday, September 28, 2008
HORSERACING NEWS : RESULTS AND PREVIEW
Curlin headed to Santa Anita
The Breeders' Cup Classic became a real possibility for Curlin on Saturday after the reigning Horse of the Year splashed his way to the record books, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. Curlin rallied past Wanderin Boy inside the eighth pole en route to a three-quarter-length victory. The $450,000 first-place prize enabled Curlin to become North America's all-time leading money earner. His total of $10,246,800 moved him past Cigar, who finished with $9,999,815. About an hour after the race, Barbara Banke, wife of owner Jess Jackson, said Curlin was to ship to Santa Anita on Sunday morning to begin getting acclimated to that track's new Pro-Ride synthetic surface. The Breeders' Cup Classic will be held at Santa Anita on Oct. 25.
Well Armed earns a spot in the Classic
Trainer Eoin Harty and the WinStar Farm of Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt are going into the Breeders' Cup Classic Well Armed. Well Armed joined stablemate Colonel John as a runner in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Oct. 25 by virtue of a gritty victory on Saturday in the Grade 1, $500,000 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meeting. Well Armed ($5.40), the favorite, outfinished Tiago by one length, with Albertus Maximus another three-quarters of a length farther back in third in the field of 10. Aaron Gryder rode Well Armed, who was timed in 1:47.11 for 1 1/8 miles on Pro-Ride.
Stardom Bound over comes adversity and is in the Breeders' Cup
Showing no ill effects from an injury scare sustained on Friday, Stardom Bound confirmed her status as the leading 2-year-old filly in the nation with a romping win in the $250,000 Oak Leaf Stakes. The victory is likely to make her the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies here on Oct. 24. The Oak Leaf was part of the Breeders' Cup Win and You're In program, assuring Stardom Bound an automatic berth to the Juvenile Fillies, subject to entry fees.
Wait A While still undefeated on Santa Anita turf
The Santa Anita turf course is playing a pivotal role in Wait a While's career. Saturday, she remained unbeaten in three starts on the course by winning the $400,000Yellow Ribbon Stakes for the second time. She won the race in 2006. Saturday's race was a prep to the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf here on Oct. 24. Wait a While earned an automatic berth to the Filly and Mare Turf, subject to the payment of entry fees.
Preview of today's Grade 1 Norfolk
The season's first major East-West showdown usually does not take place until the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But this fall, the battle for bragging rights has shifted from late October to late September. The brilliant Saratoga maiden winner Regal Ransom arrived Tuesday at Santa Anita, and on Sunday he tackles the cream of the California 2-year-old division in the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes. Win, and you're in. Shucks, win the Norfolk and you're probably the favorite for the BC Juvenile. His competition includes, Azul Leon who won his first three starts, including the Grade 2 Best Pal by disqualification on Aug. 10. He purposely skipped the Del Mar Futurity and is making his first start since the Best Pal, and first around two turns. Trainer Doug O'Neill says he is ready. "I think he's going to be very tough - we trained him with the idea of going two turns," O'Neill said. Azul Leon closed ground in all three of his starts, and probably would have won the Best Pal by open lengths if he had not been interfered with at the top of the lane. Don't forget about Midshipman who won the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity last time, and trainer Bob Baffert believes he will stay two turns. "I don't see it being a problem for him; he's got the right style," Baffert said. "It depends on how the track is playing. If they ran in the morning, I'd feel pretty good about it, but the track is different in the afternoon."
Preview of Grade 2 Oak Tree Mile
Three times in the spring and early summer, Hyperbaric placed in graded turf stakes in California. It may have been the prologue to a memorable fall campaign. Hyperbaric will start favored in Sunday's $200,000 Oak Tree Mile on turf at Santa Anita, a possible prep to the Breeders' Cup Mile here Oct. 25. Trainer Julio Canani, who has won two runnings of the BC Mile, thinks Hyperbaric can show further improvement Sunday. Hyperbaric will be tracking Tropic Storm in the Oak Tree Mile, which has nine entrants. Tropic Storm is one of two Oak Tree Mile entrants owned by West Point Thoroughbreds. The syndicate also owns Awesome Gem, the third-place finisher in 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic. Trainer Craig Dollase said earlier this week that Awesome Gem was more likely to start at Golden Gate Fields in the All American on Saturday. Two threats from off the pace are Global Hunter and Tybalt. Global Hunter, bred in Argentina, was third in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile on turf on Aug. 24, encountering traffic through the final sixteenth.
www.southerncalracing.com
The Breeders' Cup Classic became a real possibility for Curlin on Saturday after the reigning Horse of the Year splashed his way to the record books, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. Curlin rallied past Wanderin Boy inside the eighth pole en route to a three-quarter-length victory. The $450,000 first-place prize enabled Curlin to become North America's all-time leading money earner. His total of $10,246,800 moved him past Cigar, who finished with $9,999,815. About an hour after the race, Barbara Banke, wife of owner Jess Jackson, said Curlin was to ship to Santa Anita on Sunday morning to begin getting acclimated to that track's new Pro-Ride synthetic surface. The Breeders' Cup Classic will be held at Santa Anita on Oct. 25.
Well Armed earns a spot in the Classic
Trainer Eoin Harty and the WinStar Farm of Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt are going into the Breeders' Cup Classic Well Armed. Well Armed joined stablemate Colonel John as a runner in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Oct. 25 by virtue of a gritty victory on Saturday in the Grade 1, $500,000 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meeting. Well Armed ($5.40), the favorite, outfinished Tiago by one length, with Albertus Maximus another three-quarters of a length farther back in third in the field of 10. Aaron Gryder rode Well Armed, who was timed in 1:47.11 for 1 1/8 miles on Pro-Ride.
Stardom Bound over comes adversity and is in the Breeders' Cup
Showing no ill effects from an injury scare sustained on Friday, Stardom Bound confirmed her status as the leading 2-year-old filly in the nation with a romping win in the $250,000 Oak Leaf Stakes. The victory is likely to make her the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies here on Oct. 24. The Oak Leaf was part of the Breeders' Cup Win and You're In program, assuring Stardom Bound an automatic berth to the Juvenile Fillies, subject to entry fees.
Wait A While still undefeated on Santa Anita turf
The Santa Anita turf course is playing a pivotal role in Wait a While's career. Saturday, she remained unbeaten in three starts on the course by winning the $400,000Yellow Ribbon Stakes for the second time. She won the race in 2006. Saturday's race was a prep to the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf here on Oct. 24. Wait a While earned an automatic berth to the Filly and Mare Turf, subject to the payment of entry fees.
Preview of today's Grade 1 Norfolk
The season's first major East-West showdown usually does not take place until the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But this fall, the battle for bragging rights has shifted from late October to late September. The brilliant Saratoga maiden winner Regal Ransom arrived Tuesday at Santa Anita, and on Sunday he tackles the cream of the California 2-year-old division in the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes. Win, and you're in. Shucks, win the Norfolk and you're probably the favorite for the BC Juvenile. His competition includes, Azul Leon who won his first three starts, including the Grade 2 Best Pal by disqualification on Aug. 10. He purposely skipped the Del Mar Futurity and is making his first start since the Best Pal, and first around two turns. Trainer Doug O'Neill says he is ready. "I think he's going to be very tough - we trained him with the idea of going two turns," O'Neill said. Azul Leon closed ground in all three of his starts, and probably would have won the Best Pal by open lengths if he had not been interfered with at the top of the lane. Don't forget about Midshipman who won the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity last time, and trainer Bob Baffert believes he will stay two turns. "I don't see it being a problem for him; he's got the right style," Baffert said. "It depends on how the track is playing. If they ran in the morning, I'd feel pretty good about it, but the track is different in the afternoon."
Preview of Grade 2 Oak Tree Mile
Three times in the spring and early summer, Hyperbaric placed in graded turf stakes in California. It may have been the prologue to a memorable fall campaign. Hyperbaric will start favored in Sunday's $200,000 Oak Tree Mile on turf at Santa Anita, a possible prep to the Breeders' Cup Mile here Oct. 25. Trainer Julio Canani, who has won two runnings of the BC Mile, thinks Hyperbaric can show further improvement Sunday. Hyperbaric will be tracking Tropic Storm in the Oak Tree Mile, which has nine entrants. Tropic Storm is one of two Oak Tree Mile entrants owned by West Point Thoroughbreds. The syndicate also owns Awesome Gem, the third-place finisher in 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic. Trainer Craig Dollase said earlier this week that Awesome Gem was more likely to start at Golden Gate Fields in the All American on Saturday. Two threats from off the pace are Global Hunter and Tybalt. Global Hunter, bred in Argentina, was third in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile on turf on Aug. 24, encountering traffic through the final sixteenth.
www.southerncalracing.com
Saturday, September 27, 2008
HORSE RACING NEWS : HUGE BREEDERS' CUP PREVIEW DAY
List of Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" races and winners from today
Ascot G2 Royal Lodge - Juvenile Turf - Winner - Jukebox Jury
Ascot G1 Fillies' Mile - Juvenile Fillies Turf - Winner - Rainbow View
Ascot G1 Queen Elizabeth II - Mile - Winner - Raven's Pass
Bel G1 Beldame - Ladies' Classic - Winner - Cocoa Beach
TP G3 Kentucky Cup Sprint - Sprint - Winner - Fatal Bullet
Bel G1 Flower Bowl F&M - Turf - Winner - Dynaforce
TP G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile - Juvenile - Winner - West Side Bernie
GG G3 All American S. - Classic - Winner - Delightful Kiss
Bel G1 Vosburgh - Sprint - Winner - Black Seventeen
OSA G1 Clement Hirsch - Turf - Winner - Red Giant
TP G3 Kentucky Cup Distaff - Ladies' Classic - Winner - Bear Now
Bel G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - Turf - Winner Grand Couturier
OSA G1 Lady's Secret - Ladies' Classic - Winner - Zenyatta
TP G2 Kentucky Cup Classic - Classic - Winner - Zanjero
Bel G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup - Classic - Winner - Curlin
Haw G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup - Classic - Winner - Fairbanks
OSA G1 Ancient Title - Sprint - Winner - Cost of Freedom
Haw G3 Robert Carey Memorial - Turf - Winner - Wise River
OSA G1 Oak Leaf - Juvenile Fillies - Winner - Stardom Bound
OSA G1 Yellow Ribbon - F&M Turf - Winner - Wait A While
OSA G1 Goodwood - Classic - Winner - Well Armed
Heat has been problem for Pro-Ride surface
After an initial round of positive reviews from horsemen, enthusiasm over the newly installed Pro-Ride racing surface at Santa Anita has been tempered. And the theme is familiar - the synthetic track is a good surface on which to train, but afternoon races are a whole different story. Two days into the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita, jockey Garrett Gomez said the difference between morning and afternoon is distinct. "The track is safe [in the afternoon], but it's nothing like we're seeing in the morning," he said. "In the morning, it seems all the horses get across it very well, but in the afternoon, not even half of them are getting across it."
Ascot G2 Royal Lodge - Juvenile Turf - Winner - Jukebox Jury
Ascot G1 Fillies' Mile - Juvenile Fillies Turf - Winner - Rainbow View
Ascot G1 Queen Elizabeth II - Mile - Winner - Raven's Pass
Bel G1 Beldame - Ladies' Classic - Winner - Cocoa Beach
TP G3 Kentucky Cup Sprint - Sprint - Winner - Fatal Bullet
Bel G1 Flower Bowl F&M - Turf - Winner - Dynaforce
TP G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile - Juvenile - Winner - West Side Bernie
GG G3 All American S. - Classic - Winner - Delightful Kiss
Bel G1 Vosburgh - Sprint - Winner - Black Seventeen
OSA G1 Clement Hirsch - Turf - Winner - Red Giant
TP G3 Kentucky Cup Distaff - Ladies' Classic - Winner - Bear Now
Bel G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - Turf - Winner Grand Couturier
OSA G1 Lady's Secret - Ladies' Classic - Winner - Zenyatta
TP G2 Kentucky Cup Classic - Classic - Winner - Zanjero
Bel G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup - Classic - Winner - Curlin
Haw G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup - Classic - Winner - Fairbanks
OSA G1 Ancient Title - Sprint - Winner - Cost of Freedom
Haw G3 Robert Carey Memorial - Turf - Winner - Wise River
OSA G1 Oak Leaf - Juvenile Fillies - Winner - Stardom Bound
OSA G1 Yellow Ribbon - F&M Turf - Winner - Wait A While
OSA G1 Goodwood - Classic - Winner - Well Armed
Heat has been problem for Pro-Ride surface
After an initial round of positive reviews from horsemen, enthusiasm over the newly installed Pro-Ride racing surface at Santa Anita has been tempered. And the theme is familiar - the synthetic track is a good surface on which to train, but afternoon races are a whole different story. Two days into the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita, jockey Garrett Gomez said the difference between morning and afternoon is distinct. "The track is safe [in the afternoon], but it's nothing like we're seeing in the morning," he said. "In the morning, it seems all the horses get across it very well, but in the afternoon, not even half of them are getting across it."
Friday, September 26, 2008
HORSERACING NEWS : AN ANALYSIS OF THE PICK SIX CARRYOVER AT OAK TREE
Pro-Ride Surface Still Stumps Pick 6 Players at Oak Tree
Today, we embark on our third day of racing in the Pro-Ride era at Oak Tree and no one has hit the Pick 6. The day will begin with nearly $350k in the kitty and as far as it looks hard to find clear cut sinlges in any of the Pick 6 races. The pool should climb to over a million dollars and it could be larger than normal with the cacellation of racing at Belmont Park today. My strategy to attack this carryover will be play multiple tickets to negate the fact that I think many of these races are wide open. By playing multiple tickets a handicapper gives themselves a chance to be wrong on your sinlges, but yet still be right at the same time. You also give yourself a chance to hit the Pick 6 multiple times if it is your day. The Pick 6 will be consist of races 3-8 and it will start around 2:03 local time.
Race 3 - Selections 2-3-7-8
#7 Bold Cleo is my top choice as she broke poorly last time out and still won under wraps late. She has run well going two turns in all, but the one race over the Del Mar Polytrack. She gets Hall of Famer Mike Smith who is terrific on the front end and she has the abllity to be competitve versus this kind. #2 Plata Quemada was dropped and claimed last time out by Brian Koriner. He runs here right back at what looks to be her level. #3 Colimnas comes back south for Mike Chambers she has defeatd tougher in the past down south and gets a top jock in Rafael Bejarano. #8 Blushing Bear Cat stretches back out today for trainer Jack Carava and is in good form.
Race 4 - Selections 4-8
#8 Antique Avenue is my top choice as he came back firing off the break afer being geleded and blinkers were added. He has good early foot and a nice turf pedigree. #4 Eight Below makes his first start off the long layoff and has been gelded. He has two good 7 furlong drills and should be fit off the bench. Showed some ability over the turf before the layoff and speed has been playing well over this course.
Race 5 - Selections 4-10
#4 Scottish Diamond has good early speed and was claimed by Wesley Ward off a good try after blinkers were added. Not a lot of speed in here so look for barns go to rider Julio Garcia to take advantage. #10 Unusual Jail was reclaimed by Brian Koriner and gets a confident hike in class after a rough trip from the rail.
Race 6 - Selections 7-8
#7 Kami D B C is my top choice as she is making her first start off the layoff for Marty Jones. She has good series of works and showed some ability before being sidelined. She should fire today. #8 Burna Dette ran well first time out and then had a troubled trip from the rail last time out.
Race 7 - Selections 2-3-6
#6 Barber is my top choice as he looks to be lone speed. He has bit of class and gets the weight break, which shoould help. #2 Blue Exit is the unknown as he makes his first start in the U.S. He has shown speed, but is that the same type of speed he will face today. #3 Slew's Tizzy makes his first start off the layoff for Doug O'Neil and has faced much better in the past.
Race 8 - Selections 1-2-5
#5 Merge is my top choice as the firster looks well meant today. Cliff Sise is good first time out and the works are solid with a bullet thrown in. #1 Beencaughtsheating is the best of what has run and Peter Miller is good with babies. #2 Limerick Creek looks to be live first time out at what could be a good price and is bred to be a bit of a runner.
Ticket #1 - 7 w 4-8 w 4-10 w 7 w 2-3-6 w 1-2-5 = $72
Ticket #2 - 2-3-7-8 w 8 w 4-10 w 7-8 w 6 w 1-2-5 = $96
Ticket #3 - 2-3-7-8 w 4-8 w 4-10 w 7 w 2-3-6 w 5 = $96
Good Luck today with all your wagers from www.southerncalracing.com
Today, we embark on our third day of racing in the Pro-Ride era at Oak Tree and no one has hit the Pick 6. The day will begin with nearly $350k in the kitty and as far as it looks hard to find clear cut sinlges in any of the Pick 6 races. The pool should climb to over a million dollars and it could be larger than normal with the cacellation of racing at Belmont Park today. My strategy to attack this carryover will be play multiple tickets to negate the fact that I think many of these races are wide open. By playing multiple tickets a handicapper gives themselves a chance to be wrong on your sinlges, but yet still be right at the same time. You also give yourself a chance to hit the Pick 6 multiple times if it is your day. The Pick 6 will be consist of races 3-8 and it will start around 2:03 local time.
Race 3 - Selections 2-3-7-8
#7 Bold Cleo is my top choice as she broke poorly last time out and still won under wraps late. She has run well going two turns in all, but the one race over the Del Mar Polytrack. She gets Hall of Famer Mike Smith who is terrific on the front end and she has the abllity to be competitve versus this kind. #2 Plata Quemada was dropped and claimed last time out by Brian Koriner. He runs here right back at what looks to be her level. #3 Colimnas comes back south for Mike Chambers she has defeatd tougher in the past down south and gets a top jock in Rafael Bejarano. #8 Blushing Bear Cat stretches back out today for trainer Jack Carava and is in good form.
Race 4 - Selections 4-8
#8 Antique Avenue is my top choice as he came back firing off the break afer being geleded and blinkers were added. He has good early foot and a nice turf pedigree. #4 Eight Below makes his first start off the long layoff and has been gelded. He has two good 7 furlong drills and should be fit off the bench. Showed some ability over the turf before the layoff and speed has been playing well over this course.
Race 5 - Selections 4-10
#4 Scottish Diamond has good early speed and was claimed by Wesley Ward off a good try after blinkers were added. Not a lot of speed in here so look for barns go to rider Julio Garcia to take advantage. #10 Unusual Jail was reclaimed by Brian Koriner and gets a confident hike in class after a rough trip from the rail.
Race 6 - Selections 7-8
#7 Kami D B C is my top choice as she is making her first start off the layoff for Marty Jones. She has good series of works and showed some ability before being sidelined. She should fire today. #8 Burna Dette ran well first time out and then had a troubled trip from the rail last time out.
Race 7 - Selections 2-3-6
#6 Barber is my top choice as he looks to be lone speed. He has bit of class and gets the weight break, which shoould help. #2 Blue Exit is the unknown as he makes his first start in the U.S. He has shown speed, but is that the same type of speed he will face today. #3 Slew's Tizzy makes his first start off the layoff for Doug O'Neil and has faced much better in the past.
Race 8 - Selections 1-2-5
#5 Merge is my top choice as the firster looks well meant today. Cliff Sise is good first time out and the works are solid with a bullet thrown in. #1 Beencaughtsheating is the best of what has run and Peter Miller is good with babies. #2 Limerick Creek looks to be live first time out at what could be a good price and is bred to be a bit of a runner.
Ticket #1 - 7 w 4-8 w 4-10 w 7 w 2-3-6 w 1-2-5 = $72
Ticket #2 - 2-3-7-8 w 8 w 4-10 w 7-8 w 6 w 1-2-5 = $96
Ticket #3 - 2-3-7-8 w 4-8 w 4-10 w 7 w 2-3-6 w 5 = $96
Good Luck today with all your wagers from www.southerncalracing.com
Thursday, September 25, 2008
HORSE RACING NEWS FROM AROUND THE WORLD
Big names get in final prep for Breeders' Cup
Many of those older horses are racing on Saturday. Curlin is scheduled to face A. P. Arrow, Ravel, Timber Reserve, and the improving 3-year-old Mambo in Seattle in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which is at 1 1/4 miles, the same distance as the Classic.
Here at Santa Anita, 11 horses were entered on Wednesday in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood, including Spirit One, the Arlington Million winner, who will be making his first start on a synthetic surface. His rivals include Well Armed, the Pacific Classic runner-up, and Tiago. Also Saturday, Stream Cat heads the field in the Grade 2, $350,000 Kentucky Cup Classic at 1 1/8 miles at Turfway Park, and Henrythenavigator is scheduled to run in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at one mile on turf at Ascot. Go Between, the winner of the Pacific Classic, and Colonel John, the Travers Stakes winner, are both being trained straight into the BC Classic and will not have a prep. Also being trained straight into the race is Student Council, who disappointed in this year's Pacific Classic but was a sharp runner-up to Commentator in the Whitney in his previous start.
Jockeys talk about new Pro-Ride suface at Oak Tree
"It's a little different," Bejarano said of the surface. "It's better than the last meeting." Alonso Quinonez,"I thought it would be faster," he said. "It felt very good. It was soft." Joe Talamo, thinks the course will play fair. "They're getting over it," he said. "I don't think it will be a speed-favoring track like the big meeting here [last spring], or a come-from-behind track like Del Mar."
After the second race, jockey Danny Sorenson said the course felt similar to the way it felt during morning training.
Pick 6 carryover at Oak Tree
Finding winners in the pick six on Wednesday’s opening day at Santa Anita was too much for bettors. There is a carryover of $100,373 for Thursday’s eight-race program. The program begins at 1 p.m. Pacific, with the first pick six race, the third, due off at 2:03 p.m.
News on Jockey Club Gold Cup
The last time a horse had a chance to eclipse Cigar's North American earnings record in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Hall of Fame trainer Allen Jerkens was there to prevent it from happening. It was in 1998 when the Jerkens-trained Wagon Limit, a 34-1 shot, splashed his way to a 5 1/2-length victory in the slop in the then-$1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup while Skip Away, who was seeking to win his second straight Gold Cup and surpass Cigar's record, finished third at 1-5. Saturday, circumstances will be eerily similar when Jerkens sends out the longshot Merchant Marine against Curlin, who, like Skip Away, is seeking his second straight Gold Cup victory while attempting to surpass Cigar's all-time earnings mark in the now $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. For good measure, it may rain again.
Mauralakana heads Flower Bowl
Mauralakana's improbable rise to the top of the filly and mare turf division has prompted her connections to keep her in training for a two-race fall campaign. The first of those two is Saturday's Grade 1, $600,000 Flower Bowl Invitational, where Mauralakana figures a strong favorite in a five-horse field.
www.southerncalracing.com
Many of those older horses are racing on Saturday. Curlin is scheduled to face A. P. Arrow, Ravel, Timber Reserve, and the improving 3-year-old Mambo in Seattle in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which is at 1 1/4 miles, the same distance as the Classic.
Here at Santa Anita, 11 horses were entered on Wednesday in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood, including Spirit One, the Arlington Million winner, who will be making his first start on a synthetic surface. His rivals include Well Armed, the Pacific Classic runner-up, and Tiago. Also Saturday, Stream Cat heads the field in the Grade 2, $350,000 Kentucky Cup Classic at 1 1/8 miles at Turfway Park, and Henrythenavigator is scheduled to run in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at one mile on turf at Ascot. Go Between, the winner of the Pacific Classic, and Colonel John, the Travers Stakes winner, are both being trained straight into the BC Classic and will not have a prep. Also being trained straight into the race is Student Council, who disappointed in this year's Pacific Classic but was a sharp runner-up to Commentator in the Whitney in his previous start.
Jockeys talk about new Pro-Ride suface at Oak Tree
"It's a little different," Bejarano said of the surface. "It's better than the last meeting." Alonso Quinonez,"I thought it would be faster," he said. "It felt very good. It was soft." Joe Talamo, thinks the course will play fair. "They're getting over it," he said. "I don't think it will be a speed-favoring track like the big meeting here [last spring], or a come-from-behind track like Del Mar."
After the second race, jockey Danny Sorenson said the course felt similar to the way it felt during morning training.
Pick 6 carryover at Oak Tree
Finding winners in the pick six on Wednesday’s opening day at Santa Anita was too much for bettors. There is a carryover of $100,373 for Thursday’s eight-race program. The program begins at 1 p.m. Pacific, with the first pick six race, the third, due off at 2:03 p.m.
News on Jockey Club Gold Cup
The last time a horse had a chance to eclipse Cigar's North American earnings record in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Hall of Fame trainer Allen Jerkens was there to prevent it from happening. It was in 1998 when the Jerkens-trained Wagon Limit, a 34-1 shot, splashed his way to a 5 1/2-length victory in the slop in the then-$1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup while Skip Away, who was seeking to win his second straight Gold Cup and surpass Cigar's record, finished third at 1-5. Saturday, circumstances will be eerily similar when Jerkens sends out the longshot Merchant Marine against Curlin, who, like Skip Away, is seeking his second straight Gold Cup victory while attempting to surpass Cigar's all-time earnings mark in the now $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. For good measure, it may rain again.
Mauralakana heads Flower Bowl
Mauralakana's improbable rise to the top of the filly and mare turf division has prompted her connections to keep her in training for a two-race fall campaign. The first of those two is Saturday's Grade 1, $600,000 Flower Bowl Invitational, where Mauralakana figures a strong favorite in a five-horse field.
www.southerncalracing.com
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
HORSE RACING NEWS AND VIEWS
Early reviews on Pro-Ride surface at Oak Tree
Santa Anita officials and trainers based here are hoping the sequel to its synthetic surface era is a lot better than the original. When the track reopens for racing Wednesday, opening day of the Oak Tree meeting, the sport will be conducted on the new Pro-Ride surface that was installed over the summer. It replaced the dysfunctional Cushion Track surface that failed to drain last winter when it rained during the main Santa Anita meeting, costing the track eight days of racing and millions of dollars in repairs and lost wagers. Training has been conducted on Pro-Ride for the past three weeks, and the surface has received uniformly positive reviews so far. And though everyone involved is optimistic that the surface will perform properly, everyone is being soberly cautious, because the stakes could not be higher. The Breeders' Cup will be run at Santa Anita on Oct. 24-25, and if there is any chance of getting understandably skeptical horsemen and their horses - including Curlin - from out of town to show up, it has to work. If it does, the Oct. 25 Breeders' Cup Classic, which already includes Big Brown, would become the biggest race of the decade. In addition, a successful Oak Tree meeting run on Pro-Ride would likely convince additional trainers to spend the winter here, where the purses are far superior to what will be offered in Florida, New York, Arkansas, or Louisiana.If nothing else, the new surface at least looks like dirt. It is a dark brown in color, not the faint yellow of Polytrack, the synthetic surface at Del Mar. Hollywood Park has Cushion Track. Charles said the surface is "87 percent natural dirt," the rest being fibers and the polymer binders that coat the dirt, helping it drain. "Everything so far I like," trainer Eoin Harty said. "It's a very kind, forgiving surface, with a lot of bounce to it. When a horse puts his foot down, you wait 10 to 15 seconds, and the surface comes back." Harty said the biggest difference has been the lack of heavy equipment on the track compared to Del Mar.
Switch in line up for Darley Stable in upcoming Norfolk Stakes
Coronet of a Baron and Desert Party are out and Regal Ransom is in the Grade 1, $250,000 Norfolk Stakes at the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita on Sunday, as late developments have caused Sheikh Mohammed al-Maktoum's Darley Stable to shuffle its lineup for upcoming juvenile stakes.
Gaines to take her time with top 2 year old prospect
Flashy debut winner Details R Sketchy is perfectly qualified to run in either Grade 1for 2-year-olds this fall during the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita. But for now, trainer Carla Gaines and owners Burt and Jane Bacharach will take the low road. Details R Sketchy won a Del Mar maiden sprint Aug. 31 by nearly four lengths, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 91, six points higher than Midshipman earned winning the Del Mar Futurity. The two will meet when Gaines believes Details R Sketchy is ready for the deep end.
A look at today's feature from Oak Tree
Get Funky, a 5-year-old Florida-bred trained by John Sadler for Keith Abrahams, is unbeaten in two starts over Santa Anita’s downhill grass layout. He drew post position No. 4 and carries high weight of 121 pounds. Regular rider Jose Valdivia Jr. will be aboard.Get Funky will have to contend with British-bred Rebellion, a multiple-stakes winner in the East, who will be making his first start over Santa Anita’s unique downhill turf course. With Rafael Bejarano to ride for trainer Graham Motion, Rebellion is coming off a fast-finishing second to Lewis Michael in the Grade II Pat O’Brien Handicap at seven furlongs over Del Mar’s synthetic surface on Aug. 24. The complete field, with jockeys and weights in post position order: Rebellion, Rafael Bejarano, 120; Siren Lure, Alex Solis, 117; Soul City Slew, Martin Garcia, 115; Get Funky, Jose Valdivia Jr., 121; Ten Meropa, Tyler Baze, 114; Easy On The Eye, Corey Nakatani, 113; Five Star Thief, Joel Rosario, 114; One Union, Victor Espinoza, 117; California Flag, Joseph Talamo, 114; Tropic Storm, Aaron Gryder, 117; Matto Mondo, Mike Smith, 116, and Desert Code, Garrett Gomez, 117. Please note #10 Tropic storm has been scratched.
www.southerncalracing.com
Santa Anita officials and trainers based here are hoping the sequel to its synthetic surface era is a lot better than the original. When the track reopens for racing Wednesday, opening day of the Oak Tree meeting, the sport will be conducted on the new Pro-Ride surface that was installed over the summer. It replaced the dysfunctional Cushion Track surface that failed to drain last winter when it rained during the main Santa Anita meeting, costing the track eight days of racing and millions of dollars in repairs and lost wagers. Training has been conducted on Pro-Ride for the past three weeks, and the surface has received uniformly positive reviews so far. And though everyone involved is optimistic that the surface will perform properly, everyone is being soberly cautious, because the stakes could not be higher. The Breeders' Cup will be run at Santa Anita on Oct. 24-25, and if there is any chance of getting understandably skeptical horsemen and their horses - including Curlin - from out of town to show up, it has to work. If it does, the Oct. 25 Breeders' Cup Classic, which already includes Big Brown, would become the biggest race of the decade. In addition, a successful Oak Tree meeting run on Pro-Ride would likely convince additional trainers to spend the winter here, where the purses are far superior to what will be offered in Florida, New York, Arkansas, or Louisiana.If nothing else, the new surface at least looks like dirt. It is a dark brown in color, not the faint yellow of Polytrack, the synthetic surface at Del Mar. Hollywood Park has Cushion Track. Charles said the surface is "87 percent natural dirt," the rest being fibers and the polymer binders that coat the dirt, helping it drain. "Everything so far I like," trainer Eoin Harty said. "It's a very kind, forgiving surface, with a lot of bounce to it. When a horse puts his foot down, you wait 10 to 15 seconds, and the surface comes back." Harty said the biggest difference has been the lack of heavy equipment on the track compared to Del Mar.
Switch in line up for Darley Stable in upcoming Norfolk Stakes
Coronet of a Baron and Desert Party are out and Regal Ransom is in the Grade 1, $250,000 Norfolk Stakes at the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita on Sunday, as late developments have caused Sheikh Mohammed al-Maktoum's Darley Stable to shuffle its lineup for upcoming juvenile stakes.
Gaines to take her time with top 2 year old prospect
Flashy debut winner Details R Sketchy is perfectly qualified to run in either Grade 1for 2-year-olds this fall during the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita. But for now, trainer Carla Gaines and owners Burt and Jane Bacharach will take the low road. Details R Sketchy won a Del Mar maiden sprint Aug. 31 by nearly four lengths, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 91, six points higher than Midshipman earned winning the Del Mar Futurity. The two will meet when Gaines believes Details R Sketchy is ready for the deep end.
A look at today's feature from Oak Tree
Get Funky, a 5-year-old Florida-bred trained by John Sadler for Keith Abrahams, is unbeaten in two starts over Santa Anita’s downhill grass layout. He drew post position No. 4 and carries high weight of 121 pounds. Regular rider Jose Valdivia Jr. will be aboard.Get Funky will have to contend with British-bred Rebellion, a multiple-stakes winner in the East, who will be making his first start over Santa Anita’s unique downhill turf course. With Rafael Bejarano to ride for trainer Graham Motion, Rebellion is coming off a fast-finishing second to Lewis Michael in the Grade II Pat O’Brien Handicap at seven furlongs over Del Mar’s synthetic surface on Aug. 24. The complete field, with jockeys and weights in post position order: Rebellion, Rafael Bejarano, 120; Siren Lure, Alex Solis, 117; Soul City Slew, Martin Garcia, 115; Get Funky, Jose Valdivia Jr., 121; Ten Meropa, Tyler Baze, 114; Easy On The Eye, Corey Nakatani, 113; Five Star Thief, Joel Rosario, 114; One Union, Victor Espinoza, 117; California Flag, Joseph Talamo, 114; Tropic Storm, Aaron Gryder, 117; Matto Mondo, Mike Smith, 116, and Desert Code, Garrett Gomez, 117. Please note #10 Tropic storm has been scratched.
www.southerncalracing.com
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
HORSE RACING : HANDICAPPING TIP "LATE SPEED"
Handicapping Tip #3 - "Late Speed"
We have talked about identifying the speed of the race and pace makes the race. Today, we look at late speed. Late speed is the final fraction that a horse runs in a race. Late speed is extremely important in grass races, which are usually run slow early and fast late. Remember in horse racing time a fifth of a second equals a length. That means that a horse who can come home a full second faster is making up five lengths. I think that identifying late speed is also important when handicapping synthetic surfaces. They are very similar in how they are run and I try to handicap them in a similar fashion. When identifying late speed on the turf an average of 12 seconds per furlong at the class level or better than they are running at in today's race is your yard stick. The turf yard stick looks like this: 6f/8f = 24 seconds, 6.5f/8.5f = 30 seconds, 7f/9f = 36 seconds. Remember in our discussion about pace, I stated in order to identify the pace of the race less than a mile is determined at the 4f fraction and greater than a mile the 6f fraction. Good turf horses who are able to finish faster than the suggested yard sticks are generally going to be on or near the wire when the race is over. Horses do not generally exceed the turf yard stick on the synthetic surfaces, but I have found that when you are able to identify horses who are able to exceed the turf yard stick they are extremely dangerous in synthetic surface races. One example I have come across is the old gelding Doppio who is trained by Carla Gaines, he has the ability to run faster than the turf yard stick at 6.5 furlongs and he seldom gets respect at the windows. If you can find Doppio at a decent price versus high priced claimers/allowance horse his late speed makes him dangerous. I have bet him a couple of times, the last being at Del Mar in allowance/claiming race and he rallied late and returned a double digit payoff.
General Point
Being able to determine the correct class level is an important part of this equation. My earlier example of Doppio who is very tough versus allowance/claimers, but when a he runs in stakes events he has not do as well. He has even beaten Street Boss the top sprinter on the West Coast in the allowance/claiming ranks, but when they face each other in stakes he has failed to beat him.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
The Formulator has made handicapping easier by allowing you to break down the fractions each horse has run with just a click of the mouse. You no longer have to subtract/add beaten lengths than subtract/add a fifth of a second. The Formulator does this all for you with a click of the mouse.
Personal Conclusion
Late speed is and will always be extremely dangerous in turf racing, but with the invention of synthetic surfaces it is becoming more important to handicapping than ever. You can draw a lot of similarities between turf and synthetic racing and I have given you a yard stick in order to better identify who the real closers are in hopes of helping you find more winners.
www.southerncalracing.com
We have talked about identifying the speed of the race and pace makes the race. Today, we look at late speed. Late speed is the final fraction that a horse runs in a race. Late speed is extremely important in grass races, which are usually run slow early and fast late. Remember in horse racing time a fifth of a second equals a length. That means that a horse who can come home a full second faster is making up five lengths. I think that identifying late speed is also important when handicapping synthetic surfaces. They are very similar in how they are run and I try to handicap them in a similar fashion. When identifying late speed on the turf an average of 12 seconds per furlong at the class level or better than they are running at in today's race is your yard stick. The turf yard stick looks like this: 6f/8f = 24 seconds, 6.5f/8.5f = 30 seconds, 7f/9f = 36 seconds. Remember in our discussion about pace, I stated in order to identify the pace of the race less than a mile is determined at the 4f fraction and greater than a mile the 6f fraction. Good turf horses who are able to finish faster than the suggested yard sticks are generally going to be on or near the wire when the race is over. Horses do not generally exceed the turf yard stick on the synthetic surfaces, but I have found that when you are able to identify horses who are able to exceed the turf yard stick they are extremely dangerous in synthetic surface races. One example I have come across is the old gelding Doppio who is trained by Carla Gaines, he has the ability to run faster than the turf yard stick at 6.5 furlongs and he seldom gets respect at the windows. If you can find Doppio at a decent price versus high priced claimers/allowance horse his late speed makes him dangerous. I have bet him a couple of times, the last being at Del Mar in allowance/claiming race and he rallied late and returned a double digit payoff.
General Point
Being able to determine the correct class level is an important part of this equation. My earlier example of Doppio who is very tough versus allowance/claimers, but when a he runs in stakes events he has not do as well. He has even beaten Street Boss the top sprinter on the West Coast in the allowance/claiming ranks, but when they face each other in stakes he has failed to beat him.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
The Formulator has made handicapping easier by allowing you to break down the fractions each horse has run with just a click of the mouse. You no longer have to subtract/add beaten lengths than subtract/add a fifth of a second. The Formulator does this all for you with a click of the mouse.
Personal Conclusion
Late speed is and will always be extremely dangerous in turf racing, but with the invention of synthetic surfaces it is becoming more important to handicapping than ever. You can draw a lot of similarities between turf and synthetic racing and I have given you a yard stick in order to better identify who the real closers are in hopes of helping you find more winners.
www.southerncalracing.com
Monday, September 22, 2008
HORSE RACING NEWS FROM AROUND THE WORLD
Leading trainer scheduled to appear before stewards
John Sadler, the leading trainer at the Hollywood Park spring-summer and Del Mar meetings this year, had four horses test in excess of the permitted levels of anabolic steroids at Del Mar in early August, the California Horse Racing Board announced on Saturday. Sadler will not face a suspension or a financial penalty for the excessive tests, but will appear before the Santa Anita stewards on Oct. 2 for a hearing. Pending that hearing, Sadler is likely to have the four excessive tests appear on his permanent record as warnings.
Zenyatta's final preparations
Zenyatta, the leading older female in the nation, worked six furlongs in 1:12.80 at Hollywood Park on Saturday, preparing for a start in the $250,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday. The Grade 1 Lady’s Secret, run over 1 1/16 miles, will be Zenyatta’s final start before the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic on Oct. 24, a race known in past years as the BC Distaff. Saturday, Zenyatta worked in company with stablemate Bronzino. Zenyatta started three lengths behind Bronzino, caught up with him on the turn and pulled about four lengths clear. Bronzino was timed in 1:14.60. “We’re just doing the same thing, steady and maintaining her condition,” trainer John Shirreffs said. “She acts like it was a two-minute lick. Her stride just increases the farther she goes.” Zenyatta, who races for Jerry and Ann Moss, will be a strong favorite in the Lady’s Secret. Her principal rival will be Hystericalady, the multiple graded stakes winner.
News on top 2 year old filly out West
Stardom Bound, the leading 2-year-old filly in California, worked five furlongs in 1:01.20 at Hollywood Park on Saturday. The winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante on Sept. 1, she will attempt to win her second Grade 1 race in the $250,000 Oak Leaf Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, a key prep to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 24.
Foreign invaders excited about synthetic surface for Breeders'Cup
A Breeders' Cup on a synthetic surface was always going to be interesting, if not downright controversial, but this year's inaugural edition on the brave, untried new world of Pro-Ride has some horses running in every direction but Santa Anita.Curlin, Pyro, and Proud Spell all appear to be skittish about running on Santa Anita's new synthetic surface. Not so the Europeans, who are lining up for what have always been dirt races since the first Cup in 1984. Breeders' Cup commitments from European trainers are usually thin on the ground until after Arc weekend. This year, however, there are already at least two dozen foreigners sniffing the Cup waters, despite the fact that horses from Europe don't particularly care for the move from the cool and wet European autumn into Southern California's summerlike, late October climate.
Proud Spell done for the year
Proud Spell, second as the 2-5 favorite Saturday in the Grade 2 Cotillion Stakes at Philadelphia Park, is finished racing for the year and will be shipped this week for a lengthy rest at the Airdrie Stud of breeder-owner Brereton C. Jones. Jones said Monday he has not made a decision whether to retire Proud Spell. "She's a little bit on the tired side right now,' said Jones. "She's run every month since February, and she's run against the best fillies in America. After her last two races, she just hasn't eaten up quite as well. We'll turned her out for 30 days, let her be a horse, then decide what we're going to do with her next year.
Indian Blessing headed to the Breeders' Cup
A day that started terribly for trainer Bob Baffert got better in the afternoon as Indian Blessing rolled to a 6 1/4-length victory in Saturday's Grade 2, $150,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont Park. She is scheduled to ship to Baffert's Santa Anita barn on Monday to prepare for either the Breeders' Cup Sprint against the boys on Oct. 25 or the Filly and Mare Sprint on Oct. 24.
John Sadler, the leading trainer at the Hollywood Park spring-summer and Del Mar meetings this year, had four horses test in excess of the permitted levels of anabolic steroids at Del Mar in early August, the California Horse Racing Board announced on Saturday. Sadler will not face a suspension or a financial penalty for the excessive tests, but will appear before the Santa Anita stewards on Oct. 2 for a hearing. Pending that hearing, Sadler is likely to have the four excessive tests appear on his permanent record as warnings.
Zenyatta's final preparations
Zenyatta, the leading older female in the nation, worked six furlongs in 1:12.80 at Hollywood Park on Saturday, preparing for a start in the $250,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday. The Grade 1 Lady’s Secret, run over 1 1/16 miles, will be Zenyatta’s final start before the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic on Oct. 24, a race known in past years as the BC Distaff. Saturday, Zenyatta worked in company with stablemate Bronzino. Zenyatta started three lengths behind Bronzino, caught up with him on the turn and pulled about four lengths clear. Bronzino was timed in 1:14.60. “We’re just doing the same thing, steady and maintaining her condition,” trainer John Shirreffs said. “She acts like it was a two-minute lick. Her stride just increases the farther she goes.” Zenyatta, who races for Jerry and Ann Moss, will be a strong favorite in the Lady’s Secret. Her principal rival will be Hystericalady, the multiple graded stakes winner.
News on top 2 year old filly out West
Stardom Bound, the leading 2-year-old filly in California, worked five furlongs in 1:01.20 at Hollywood Park on Saturday. The winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante on Sept. 1, she will attempt to win her second Grade 1 race in the $250,000 Oak Leaf Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, a key prep to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 24.
Foreign invaders excited about synthetic surface for Breeders'Cup
A Breeders' Cup on a synthetic surface was always going to be interesting, if not downright controversial, but this year's inaugural edition on the brave, untried new world of Pro-Ride has some horses running in every direction but Santa Anita.Curlin, Pyro, and Proud Spell all appear to be skittish about running on Santa Anita's new synthetic surface. Not so the Europeans, who are lining up for what have always been dirt races since the first Cup in 1984. Breeders' Cup commitments from European trainers are usually thin on the ground until after Arc weekend. This year, however, there are already at least two dozen foreigners sniffing the Cup waters, despite the fact that horses from Europe don't particularly care for the move from the cool and wet European autumn into Southern California's summerlike, late October climate.
Proud Spell done for the year
Proud Spell, second as the 2-5 favorite Saturday in the Grade 2 Cotillion Stakes at Philadelphia Park, is finished racing for the year and will be shipped this week for a lengthy rest at the Airdrie Stud of breeder-owner Brereton C. Jones. Jones said Monday he has not made a decision whether to retire Proud Spell. "She's a little bit on the tired side right now,' said Jones. "She's run every month since February, and she's run against the best fillies in America. After her last two races, she just hasn't eaten up quite as well. We'll turned her out for 30 days, let her be a horse, then decide what we're going to do with her next year.
Indian Blessing headed to the Breeders' Cup
A day that started terribly for trainer Bob Baffert got better in the afternoon as Indian Blessing rolled to a 6 1/4-length victory in Saturday's Grade 2, $150,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont Park. She is scheduled to ship to Baffert's Santa Anita barn on Monday to prepare for either the Breeders' Cup Sprint against the boys on Oct. 25 or the Filly and Mare Sprint on Oct. 24.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
HORSE RACING : HANDICAPPING TIP
Handicapping Tip #2 "pace makes the race"
"Pace makes the race" is an old handicappers saying and I believe it to be true. In the first tip I talked about identifying the speed of the race. By that I mean who/whom is going to make the lead. This gives you a picture of how the race will set up and what running style will be most effective in a particular race. Today, I am talking pace. What point should you use to determine the pace of the race? I use the following points of call to determine the pace of a particular race. For races less than a mile I use the 4 furlong call. For races greater than a mile I use the 6 furlong call. I have determined this is a simple way for a handicapper to understand how a particular race might set up. Whether it is the 4 furlong point in a sprint or the 6 furlong point in a route the real running is about to start. If the pace is to hot early the front runners are generally in real trouble. If a horse has been allowed to set a slow early pace and is able to relax he/she will have better chance of winning a race. What is too fast early on in a race? Based on my personal knowledge of the Southern California racing circuit I think the following is a good rule of thumb when determining how fast is too fast early when talking about Santa Anita/Oak Tree or Hollywood Park:
Races < 1 mile, < :45 = fast,:45 and change = average and :46 < = slow
Races > 1 mile, < 1:11 = fast, 1:11 to 1:12 and change = average and 1:13 < = slow
I personally think the Cushion Track at Santa Anita/Oak Tree and Hollywood plays much faster than the Polytrack at Del Mar. I would adjust those averages a full second for Del Mar. We will see how the new track plays with the beginning of Oak Tree at Santa Anita in a week from today. In my blog I will be providing you the class, pace and final times for each race on a daily basis in my blog as I follow the upcoming Oak Tree meeting.
General Point
Know what class of horse you are dealing with, because horses with a class advantage will be able to defy logic when it comes to early pace. While horses who lack class will many times not be able to take advantage of their early pace advantage.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
Like I said in my earlier tip the Formulator is able to give you the exact time of each horse in a particular race, with only a click or two of the mouse. You do not have to adjust a fifth of a second for every beaten length it will give it to you automatically. What is made clear by using this advancement in handicapping is how fast the pace is or is not going to be. This will answer a big piece of the handicapping puzzle.
Personal Conclusion
Pace and speed go together, by being able to identify who or whom is going to be on lead and then having an understanding of how fast the early pace actually is you have solved part of the handicapping equation. I have also given you what I think is quick, easy and reliable way to determine early pace and how fast is it.
www.southerncalracing.com
"Pace makes the race" is an old handicappers saying and I believe it to be true. In the first tip I talked about identifying the speed of the race. By that I mean who/whom is going to make the lead. This gives you a picture of how the race will set up and what running style will be most effective in a particular race. Today, I am talking pace. What point should you use to determine the pace of the race? I use the following points of call to determine the pace of a particular race. For races less than a mile I use the 4 furlong call. For races greater than a mile I use the 6 furlong call. I have determined this is a simple way for a handicapper to understand how a particular race might set up. Whether it is the 4 furlong point in a sprint or the 6 furlong point in a route the real running is about to start. If the pace is to hot early the front runners are generally in real trouble. If a horse has been allowed to set a slow early pace and is able to relax he/she will have better chance of winning a race. What is too fast early on in a race? Based on my personal knowledge of the Southern California racing circuit I think the following is a good rule of thumb when determining how fast is too fast early when talking about Santa Anita/Oak Tree or Hollywood Park:
Races < 1 mile, < :45 = fast,:45 and change = average and :46 < = slow
Races > 1 mile, < 1:11 = fast, 1:11 to 1:12 and change = average and 1:13 < = slow
I personally think the Cushion Track at Santa Anita/Oak Tree and Hollywood plays much faster than the Polytrack at Del Mar. I would adjust those averages a full second for Del Mar. We will see how the new track plays with the beginning of Oak Tree at Santa Anita in a week from today. In my blog I will be providing you the class, pace and final times for each race on a daily basis in my blog as I follow the upcoming Oak Tree meeting.
General Point
Know what class of horse you are dealing with, because horses with a class advantage will be able to defy logic when it comes to early pace. While horses who lack class will many times not be able to take advantage of their early pace advantage.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
Like I said in my earlier tip the Formulator is able to give you the exact time of each horse in a particular race, with only a click or two of the mouse. You do not have to adjust a fifth of a second for every beaten length it will give it to you automatically. What is made clear by using this advancement in handicapping is how fast the pace is or is not going to be. This will answer a big piece of the handicapping puzzle.
Personal Conclusion
Pace and speed go together, by being able to identify who or whom is going to be on lead and then having an understanding of how fast the early pace actually is you have solved part of the handicapping equation. I have also given you what I think is quick, easy and reliable way to determine early pace and how fast is it.
www.southerncalracing.com
Saturday, September 20, 2008
RACE RESULTS AND NEWS
Mass Cap
It was as easy as advertised. Commentator towered over his six rivals in Saturday's Massachusetts Handicap on paper and he towered over them on the track as well, taking over from pacesetting Riversrunrylee at the three-furlong pole then cruising to a 14-length victory.
Super Derby
My Pal Charlie, who has been racing in graded stakes company since March, broke through with his first win at that level on Saturday in the Grade 2, $500,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs. He won by 4 1/4 lengths over favorite Macho Again. It was another neck back in third to Forest Command. My Pal Charlie ($15) broke with the field and settled in third along the rail as Stungbythestorm moved to the lead with Star Production in close pursuit. Those two raced through fractions of 23.14 seconds for the opening quarter and 47.65 for the half-mile. My Pal Charlie began to move up on the turn, had the lead heading into the stretch, and pulled away from his rivals. He covered mile and 1/8 on a fast track in 1:48.36.
Tiznow Handicap
Jonesboro was resilient on the front end in the $150,000 Tiznow Handicap, winning the 1 1/16-mile race by 1 3/4 lengths over Autobeacat. It was another neck back in third to Smokeyjonessutton. The Tiznow was a Win and You're In race for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Morse said a start in the Breeders' Cup was unlikely, but did not rule it out.
Indain Blessing romps
A day that started terribly for trainer Bob Baffert got better in the afternoon as Indian Blessing rolled to a 6 1/4-length victory in Saturday's Grade 2, $150,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont Park. The victory came several hours after the Baffert-trained Tough Tiz's Sis suffered a career-ending injury during a morning workout here. Tough Tiz's Sis, who won the Grade 1 Ruffian here on Sept. 6, sustained a condylar fracture to her right foreleg and has been retired. "The day started horrible but at least the champion came through," Baffert said from Southern California. "We were low, then went all the way down, and now came all the way back again." The Gallant Bloom was relatively simple for Indian Blessing. After Zada Belle took the early lead, Indian Blessing, who broke from the rail under Corey Nakatani, tugged her way to a half-length lead over Zada Belle after a half-mile run in 45.09 seconds. Turning for home, Indian Blessing put away Zada Belle, but Elope was poised to make a bid. Nakatani shook the reigns at Indian Blessing then hit her four times with a right-hand whip and she sped away. Nakatani geared Indian Blessing down the final 100 yards as Indian Blessing covered the 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:16.24. She returned $2.70.
Tough Tiz's Sis injured
Only two weeks after a dazzling victory at Belmont Park in the Grade 1 Ruffian Handicap, Tough Tiz's Sis is out of the Breeders' Cup with a career-ending injury following a five-furlong workout Saturday at Belmont. According to trainer Bob Baffert, Tough Tiz's Sis took an awkward step at the end of the workout. Baffert said an exam revealed the "beginning of a condylar fracture" in her right front.
www.southerncalracing.com
It was as easy as advertised. Commentator towered over his six rivals in Saturday's Massachusetts Handicap on paper and he towered over them on the track as well, taking over from pacesetting Riversrunrylee at the three-furlong pole then cruising to a 14-length victory.
Super Derby
My Pal Charlie, who has been racing in graded stakes company since March, broke through with his first win at that level on Saturday in the Grade 2, $500,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs. He won by 4 1/4 lengths over favorite Macho Again. It was another neck back in third to Forest Command. My Pal Charlie ($15) broke with the field and settled in third along the rail as Stungbythestorm moved to the lead with Star Production in close pursuit. Those two raced through fractions of 23.14 seconds for the opening quarter and 47.65 for the half-mile. My Pal Charlie began to move up on the turn, had the lead heading into the stretch, and pulled away from his rivals. He covered mile and 1/8 on a fast track in 1:48.36.
Tiznow Handicap
Jonesboro was resilient on the front end in the $150,000 Tiznow Handicap, winning the 1 1/16-mile race by 1 3/4 lengths over Autobeacat. It was another neck back in third to Smokeyjonessutton. The Tiznow was a Win and You're In race for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Morse said a start in the Breeders' Cup was unlikely, but did not rule it out.
Indain Blessing romps
A day that started terribly for trainer Bob Baffert got better in the afternoon as Indian Blessing rolled to a 6 1/4-length victory in Saturday's Grade 2, $150,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont Park. The victory came several hours after the Baffert-trained Tough Tiz's Sis suffered a career-ending injury during a morning workout here. Tough Tiz's Sis, who won the Grade 1 Ruffian here on Sept. 6, sustained a condylar fracture to her right foreleg and has been retired. "The day started horrible but at least the champion came through," Baffert said from Southern California. "We were low, then went all the way down, and now came all the way back again." The Gallant Bloom was relatively simple for Indian Blessing. After Zada Belle took the early lead, Indian Blessing, who broke from the rail under Corey Nakatani, tugged her way to a half-length lead over Zada Belle after a half-mile run in 45.09 seconds. Turning for home, Indian Blessing put away Zada Belle, but Elope was poised to make a bid. Nakatani shook the reigns at Indian Blessing then hit her four times with a right-hand whip and she sped away. Nakatani geared Indian Blessing down the final 100 yards as Indian Blessing covered the 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:16.24. She returned $2.70.
Tough Tiz's Sis injured
Only two weeks after a dazzling victory at Belmont Park in the Grade 1 Ruffian Handicap, Tough Tiz's Sis is out of the Breeders' Cup with a career-ending injury following a five-furlong workout Saturday at Belmont. According to trainer Bob Baffert, Tough Tiz's Sis took an awkward step at the end of the workout. Baffert said an exam revealed the "beginning of a condylar fracture" in her right front.
www.southerncalracing.com
Friday, September 19, 2008
HORSE RACING NEWS : BREEDERS' CUP NEWS AND WHO IS COMING TO CALIFORNIA
Massachusetts Handicap
Perhaps because he's getting a little older himself, trainer Nick Zito has come to appreciate the virtues of having a top older horse in his barn. Perhaps the fact that he has two such animals still going strong at age 7 is another reason.
Zito will get to display one of those 7-year-olds in front of a new audience Saturday when he saddles the brilliantly quick New York-bred gelding Commentator in the $500,0000 Massachusetts Handicap at Suffolk Downs. Commentator is the only graded stakes winner among the seven horses entered in the Mass Cap, whose winner earns an automatic berth into next month's $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita as part of the Win and You're In series. Volcanic Force and Riversrunrylee have shown the ability to run fast early fractions, but neither has the quality of Commentator, who at 122 pounds is spotting the field 10 to 12 pounds. By the numbers, the Mass Cap is a mismatch. Commentator has won 12 of 19 starts and earned $1,541,936. The other six horses have combined to win 39 of 190 starts and earned $1,365,327. Commentator has 11 triple-digit Beyer Figures; the rest of the field has four. If there is an upset, Dr. Pleasure is the most likely candidate to do it. A son of Thunder Gulch and champion mare Beautiful Pleasure, Dr. Pleasure is coming off an allowance win which was his first start since undergoing throat surgery. Trainer John Ward hopes whatever speed that exists in the race is competent enough to stay with Commentator for a decent amount of time.
Super Derby
There appear to be two schools of thought on the Grade 2, $500,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs on Saturday. One is that Macho Again is the class of the field and could get a perfect pace setup behind Star Production, Forest Command, My Pal Charlie, and Mambo Meister. The other is that there are some late-bloomers with real upside in the 10-horse field, among them Forest Command, Mambo Meister, Numismatist, and Stungbythestorm. Adding another layer to the puzzle is the presence of graded stakes regulars Real Appeal and Golden Yank, both of whom are strong closers. The Super Derby, at 1 1/8 miles, is one of six stakes worth a cumulative $1.2 million on Louisiana Downs's biggest day of the year. It is also part of a $100,000-guaranteed pick four on races 9-12.
Final prep for Indian Blessing
When Bob Baffert decided to leave Indian Blessing in New York with John and Tonja Terranova this summer, his main charge to them was to try and get the speedy filly to relax. Between the Terranovas, exercise rider Simon Harris, and jockey John Velazquez, the lessons went swimmingly, as Indian Blessing did indeed show the ability to sit off horses in winning the Grade 1 Prioress and Grade 1 Test. Baffert hopes the education continues Saturday at Belmont Park when Indian Blessing runs in the Grade 2, $150,000Gallant Bloom Handicap at 6 1/2 furlongs. The Gallant Bloom will be Indian Blessing's final prep before she most likely runs in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Santa Anita on Oct. 24. Indian Blessing, last year's juvenile filly champion, has been stabled in New York since the beginning of June. She was not able to relax in the Acorn, where she set strong fractions before being run down by Zaftig, just her second career loss. But in the Prioress and Test, Indian Blessing saved her speed for the last part of the race.
Update on Midnite Lute
Midnight Lute, the champion sprinter of 2007, is still recovering from a hoof injury suffered in the Pat O'Brien Handicap at Del Mar on Aug. 24 and will make his next start in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at Santa Anita on Oct. 25, trainer Bob Baffert said.
Douglas to ride at Oak Tree meet
Rene Douglas, the leading rider at the current Arlington Park meeting, will ride at the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting, effective Wednesday, according to his new agent, Tom Knust.
Perhaps because he's getting a little older himself, trainer Nick Zito has come to appreciate the virtues of having a top older horse in his barn. Perhaps the fact that he has two such animals still going strong at age 7 is another reason.
Zito will get to display one of those 7-year-olds in front of a new audience Saturday when he saddles the brilliantly quick New York-bred gelding Commentator in the $500,0000 Massachusetts Handicap at Suffolk Downs. Commentator is the only graded stakes winner among the seven horses entered in the Mass Cap, whose winner earns an automatic berth into next month's $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita as part of the Win and You're In series. Volcanic Force and Riversrunrylee have shown the ability to run fast early fractions, but neither has the quality of Commentator, who at 122 pounds is spotting the field 10 to 12 pounds. By the numbers, the Mass Cap is a mismatch. Commentator has won 12 of 19 starts and earned $1,541,936. The other six horses have combined to win 39 of 190 starts and earned $1,365,327. Commentator has 11 triple-digit Beyer Figures; the rest of the field has four. If there is an upset, Dr. Pleasure is the most likely candidate to do it. A son of Thunder Gulch and champion mare Beautiful Pleasure, Dr. Pleasure is coming off an allowance win which was his first start since undergoing throat surgery. Trainer John Ward hopes whatever speed that exists in the race is competent enough to stay with Commentator for a decent amount of time.
Super Derby
There appear to be two schools of thought on the Grade 2, $500,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs on Saturday. One is that Macho Again is the class of the field and could get a perfect pace setup behind Star Production, Forest Command, My Pal Charlie, and Mambo Meister. The other is that there are some late-bloomers with real upside in the 10-horse field, among them Forest Command, Mambo Meister, Numismatist, and Stungbythestorm. Adding another layer to the puzzle is the presence of graded stakes regulars Real Appeal and Golden Yank, both of whom are strong closers. The Super Derby, at 1 1/8 miles, is one of six stakes worth a cumulative $1.2 million on Louisiana Downs's biggest day of the year. It is also part of a $100,000-guaranteed pick four on races 9-12.
Final prep for Indian Blessing
When Bob Baffert decided to leave Indian Blessing in New York with John and Tonja Terranova this summer, his main charge to them was to try and get the speedy filly to relax. Between the Terranovas, exercise rider Simon Harris, and jockey John Velazquez, the lessons went swimmingly, as Indian Blessing did indeed show the ability to sit off horses in winning the Grade 1 Prioress and Grade 1 Test. Baffert hopes the education continues Saturday at Belmont Park when Indian Blessing runs in the Grade 2, $150,000Gallant Bloom Handicap at 6 1/2 furlongs. The Gallant Bloom will be Indian Blessing's final prep before she most likely runs in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Santa Anita on Oct. 24. Indian Blessing, last year's juvenile filly champion, has been stabled in New York since the beginning of June. She was not able to relax in the Acorn, where she set strong fractions before being run down by Zaftig, just her second career loss. But in the Prioress and Test, Indian Blessing saved her speed for the last part of the race.
Update on Midnite Lute
Midnight Lute, the champion sprinter of 2007, is still recovering from a hoof injury suffered in the Pat O'Brien Handicap at Del Mar on Aug. 24 and will make his next start in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at Santa Anita on Oct. 25, trainer Bob Baffert said.
Douglas to ride at Oak Tree meet
Rene Douglas, the leading rider at the current Arlington Park meeting, will ride at the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting, effective Wednesday, according to his new agent, Tom Knust.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
HORSE RACING NEWS FROM AROUND THE WORLD
News on Norfolk Stakes
Kelly Leak, the disqualified winner of the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last month, will miss the $250,000 Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita on Sept. 28. Trainer Mike Machowsky said Wednesday that because he was discouraged by the colt's 10th-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 3, Kelly Leak was turned out for a two-week break on Sept. 9 and will return to Santa Anita next week. Also, Majormotionpicture, the electrifying winner of a maiden race at Del Mar on Aug. 24, will miss the Norfolk because of a minor foot injury, Machowsky said. Machowsky said Majormotionpicture could start in the $75,000 Jack Goodman Stakes at six furlongs on Oct. 18. He said he has no plans for Kelly Leak.
Awesome Gem back to turf
Awesome Gem, third in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic at Monmouth Park, is being prepared for the $200,000 Oak Tree Mile at Santa Anita on Sept. 28, and is unlikely to start in the Breeders' Cup Classic next month, trainer Craig Dollase said.
Seventh in the $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Aug. 24, Awesome Gem is more likely to run in the Breeders' Cup Mile on turf or the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Dollase said. Both races are on Oct. 25. "His turf form is good and he needs pace," Dollase said. "In a mile race you get a lot of pace. In those longer races, you don't get that pace. He's proven at the shorter distance."
Rule change for claiming horses in California
Claiming horses returning from layoffs of at least six months in California can be entered with a provision that will make them ineligible to be claimed in their comeback races, according to a rule change recently implemented by the California Horse Racing Board.The rule change, which takes effect with entries on Saturday, is designed to give claiming-class horses a break from racing when necessary and not be plundered by rival owners and trainers when they return to competition. The claiming horses can be entered as ineligible to be claimed for the first race of their comebacks, but must return for a value equal to or greater than their preceding starts, according to a statement released by the racing board.
Smooth Air to prep on turf
If prepping for the Breeders' Cup Classic with a race on the turf is good enough for Big Brown, then why shouldn't it be good enough for Smooth Air? Obviously that's what Bennie Stutts Jr. is thinking. The veteran trainer is plotting a course to the BC Classic for Smooth Air that will begin with the $100,000 Needles Stakes here on Sept. 27. Smooth Air got his first taste of running on the grass on Monday morning, working seven furlongs over a firm course in 1:29.88.
Plans for European horses headed to the Breeders' Cup
Arlington Million winner Spirit One will use Santa Anita's Goodwood Stakes on Sept. 27 as a trial for his intended run in the Classic. Trainer Philippe Demercastel told the Racing Post on Tuesday that he had considered running his 4-year-old son of Anabaa Blue in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on the same day, but wishes to avoid a clash with Curlin. A run in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood would be Spirit One's first start on any surface other than turf, as well as his first outing since Aug. 9 when he led throughout in the Arlington Million. Three other highly regarded Europeans also are involved in preparations for a possible run at the Classic. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is considering both Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, while his fellow Irishman Jim Bolger is contemplating a run with New Approach. All three of those horses could take different paths to the Classic.O'Brien may run his five-time Group 1 winner Duke of Marmalade, who skipped the Sept. 7 Irish Champion Stakes because of soft ground, in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5. He said on Monday, however, that he may instead send Duke of Marmalade to England's newest racetrack, Great Leighs, for a run on Polytrack. Great Leighs, 30 miles northeast of London, has scheduled a Breeders' Cup preview night of sorts on Sept. 27. One of the allowance races on the card will be a 1 1/8-mile, 50-yard prep for the Classic worth $72,000 in which O'Brien may discover how Duke of Marmalade acts on a synthetic surface. The O'Brien-trained Henrythenavigator, a four-time Group 1 winner at a mile this year, will use the one-mile Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot earlier the same afternoon as a prep for either the Classic or the Mile. New Approach won the Irish Champion in Duke of Marmalade's absence and will use the Arc as a prep for either the Breeders' Cup Classic or the Oct. 20 Champion Stakes.
Casino Drive headed to Oak Tree
The Japan Racing Association reports that Casino Drive will arrive in California on Oct. 1 to complete preparations for the Classic. The 5 3/4-length winner of the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 10 was stymied in his effort to win the Belmont Stakes when he suffered a foot bruise a few days before the race. Returned to Japan by trainer Kazuo Fujisawa with the intent of returning to America for the Classic, Casino Drive will run for the first time since the Peter Pan in a Santa Anita allowance as his trial for the Classic.
www.southerncalracing.com
Kelly Leak, the disqualified winner of the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last month, will miss the $250,000 Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita on Sept. 28. Trainer Mike Machowsky said Wednesday that because he was discouraged by the colt's 10th-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 3, Kelly Leak was turned out for a two-week break on Sept. 9 and will return to Santa Anita next week. Also, Majormotionpicture, the electrifying winner of a maiden race at Del Mar on Aug. 24, will miss the Norfolk because of a minor foot injury, Machowsky said. Machowsky said Majormotionpicture could start in the $75,000 Jack Goodman Stakes at six furlongs on Oct. 18. He said he has no plans for Kelly Leak.
Awesome Gem back to turf
Awesome Gem, third in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic at Monmouth Park, is being prepared for the $200,000 Oak Tree Mile at Santa Anita on Sept. 28, and is unlikely to start in the Breeders' Cup Classic next month, trainer Craig Dollase said.
Seventh in the $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Aug. 24, Awesome Gem is more likely to run in the Breeders' Cup Mile on turf or the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Dollase said. Both races are on Oct. 25. "His turf form is good and he needs pace," Dollase said. "In a mile race you get a lot of pace. In those longer races, you don't get that pace. He's proven at the shorter distance."
Rule change for claiming horses in California
Claiming horses returning from layoffs of at least six months in California can be entered with a provision that will make them ineligible to be claimed in their comeback races, according to a rule change recently implemented by the California Horse Racing Board.The rule change, which takes effect with entries on Saturday, is designed to give claiming-class horses a break from racing when necessary and not be plundered by rival owners and trainers when they return to competition. The claiming horses can be entered as ineligible to be claimed for the first race of their comebacks, but must return for a value equal to or greater than their preceding starts, according to a statement released by the racing board.
Smooth Air to prep on turf
If prepping for the Breeders' Cup Classic with a race on the turf is good enough for Big Brown, then why shouldn't it be good enough for Smooth Air? Obviously that's what Bennie Stutts Jr. is thinking. The veteran trainer is plotting a course to the BC Classic for Smooth Air that will begin with the $100,000 Needles Stakes here on Sept. 27. Smooth Air got his first taste of running on the grass on Monday morning, working seven furlongs over a firm course in 1:29.88.
Plans for European horses headed to the Breeders' Cup
Arlington Million winner Spirit One will use Santa Anita's Goodwood Stakes on Sept. 27 as a trial for his intended run in the Classic. Trainer Philippe Demercastel told the Racing Post on Tuesday that he had considered running his 4-year-old son of Anabaa Blue in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on the same day, but wishes to avoid a clash with Curlin. A run in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood would be Spirit One's first start on any surface other than turf, as well as his first outing since Aug. 9 when he led throughout in the Arlington Million. Three other highly regarded Europeans also are involved in preparations for a possible run at the Classic. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is considering both Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, while his fellow Irishman Jim Bolger is contemplating a run with New Approach. All three of those horses could take different paths to the Classic.O'Brien may run his five-time Group 1 winner Duke of Marmalade, who skipped the Sept. 7 Irish Champion Stakes because of soft ground, in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5. He said on Monday, however, that he may instead send Duke of Marmalade to England's newest racetrack, Great Leighs, for a run on Polytrack. Great Leighs, 30 miles northeast of London, has scheduled a Breeders' Cup preview night of sorts on Sept. 27. One of the allowance races on the card will be a 1 1/8-mile, 50-yard prep for the Classic worth $72,000 in which O'Brien may discover how Duke of Marmalade acts on a synthetic surface. The O'Brien-trained Henrythenavigator, a four-time Group 1 winner at a mile this year, will use the one-mile Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot earlier the same afternoon as a prep for either the Classic or the Mile. New Approach won the Irish Champion in Duke of Marmalade's absence and will use the Arc as a prep for either the Breeders' Cup Classic or the Oct. 20 Champion Stakes.
Casino Drive headed to Oak Tree
The Japan Racing Association reports that Casino Drive will arrive in California on Oct. 1 to complete preparations for the Classic. The 5 3/4-length winner of the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 10 was stymied in his effort to win the Belmont Stakes when he suffered a foot bruise a few days before the race. Returned to Japan by trainer Kazuo Fujisawa with the intent of returning to America for the Classic, Casino Drive will run for the first time since the Peter Pan in a Santa Anita allowance as his trial for the Classic.
www.southerncalracing.com
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
HORSERACING : HANDICAPPING TIP #2 "PACE MAKES THE RACE"
Handicapping Tip #2 "pace makes the race"
"Pace makes the race" is an old handicappers saying and I believe it to be true. In the first tip I talked about identifying the speed of the race. By that I mean who/whom is going to make the lead. This gives you a picture of how the race will set up and what running style will be most effective in a particular race. Today, I am talking pace. What point should you use to determine the pace of the race? I use the following points of call to determine the pace of a particular race. For races less than a mile I use the 4 furlong call. For races greater than a mile I use the 6 furlong call. I have determined this is a simple way for a handicapper to understand how a particular race might set up. Whether it is the 4 furlong point in a sprint or the 6 furlong point in a route the real running is about to start. If the pace is to hot early the front runners are generally in real trouble. If a horse has been allowed to set a slow early pace and is able to relax he/she will have better chance of winning a race. What is too fast early on in a race? Based on my personal knowledge of the Southern California racing circuit I think the following is a good rule of thumb when determining how fast is too fast early when talking about Santa Anita/Oak Tree or Hollywood Park:
Races < 1 mile, < :45 = fast,:45 and change = average and :46 < = slow
Races > 1 mile, < 1:11 = fast, 1:11 to 1:12 and change = average and 1:13 < = slow
I personally think the Cushion Track at Santa Anita/Oak Tree and Hollywood plays much faster than the Polytrack at Del Mar. I would adjust those averages a full second for Del Mar. We will see how the new track plays with the beginning of Oak Tree at Santa Anita in a week from today. In my blog I will be providing you the class, pace and final times for each race on a daily basis in my blog as I follow the upcoming Oak Tree meeting.
General Point
Know what class of horse you are dealing with, because horses with a class advantage will be able to defy logic when it comes to early pace. While horses who lack class will many times not be able to take advantage of their early pace advantage.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
Like I said in my earlier tip the Formulator is able to give you the exact time of each horse in a particular race, with only a click or two of the mouse. You do not have to adjust a fifth of a second for every beaten length it will give it to you automatically. What is made clear by using this advancement in handicapping is how fast the pace is or is not going to be. This will answer a big piece of the handicapping puzzle.
Personal Conclusion
Pace and speed go together, by being able to identify who or whom is going to be on lead and then having an understanding of how fast the early pace actually is you have solved part of the handicapping equation. I have also given you what I think is quick, easy and reliable way to determine early pace and how fast is it.
www.southerncalracing.com
"Pace makes the race" is an old handicappers saying and I believe it to be true. In the first tip I talked about identifying the speed of the race. By that I mean who/whom is going to make the lead. This gives you a picture of how the race will set up and what running style will be most effective in a particular race. Today, I am talking pace. What point should you use to determine the pace of the race? I use the following points of call to determine the pace of a particular race. For races less than a mile I use the 4 furlong call. For races greater than a mile I use the 6 furlong call. I have determined this is a simple way for a handicapper to understand how a particular race might set up. Whether it is the 4 furlong point in a sprint or the 6 furlong point in a route the real running is about to start. If the pace is to hot early the front runners are generally in real trouble. If a horse has been allowed to set a slow early pace and is able to relax he/she will have better chance of winning a race. What is too fast early on in a race? Based on my personal knowledge of the Southern California racing circuit I think the following is a good rule of thumb when determining how fast is too fast early when talking about Santa Anita/Oak Tree or Hollywood Park:
Races < 1 mile, < :45 = fast,:45 and change = average and :46 < = slow
Races > 1 mile, < 1:11 = fast, 1:11 to 1:12 and change = average and 1:13 < = slow
I personally think the Cushion Track at Santa Anita/Oak Tree and Hollywood plays much faster than the Polytrack at Del Mar. I would adjust those averages a full second for Del Mar. We will see how the new track plays with the beginning of Oak Tree at Santa Anita in a week from today. In my blog I will be providing you the class, pace and final times for each race on a daily basis in my blog as I follow the upcoming Oak Tree meeting.
General Point
Know what class of horse you are dealing with, because horses with a class advantage will be able to defy logic when it comes to early pace. While horses who lack class will many times not be able to take advantage of their early pace advantage.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
Like I said in my earlier tip the Formulator is able to give you the exact time of each horse in a particular race, with only a click or two of the mouse. You do not have to adjust a fifth of a second for every beaten length it will give it to you automatically. What is made clear by using this advancement in handicapping is how fast the pace is or is not going to be. This will answer a big piece of the handicapping puzzle.
Personal Conclusion
Pace and speed go together, by being able to identify who or whom is going to be on lead and then having an understanding of how fast the early pace actually is you have solved part of the handicapping equation. I have also given you what I think is quick, easy and reliable way to determine early pace and how fast is it.
www.southerncalracing.com
Monday, September 15, 2008
RACE RESULTS AND NEWS ON BREEDERS CUP CONTENDERS
Pick 6 News from Fairplex Park
Yesterday, at Fairplex Park the Pick 6 pool reached over $1.2 million and paid out over $7900 for those who correctly selected six winners. I took the time to cover the Pick 6 races in yesterday's blog and in my analysis of the races I correctly identified all six winners in the sequence. If you played the ticket as I had suggested, it would have cost you $96 and the total return was over 9k inlcuding the five of sixes. Hopefully some of you were able to take advantage.
A closer look at the Group National Stakes from Ireland
Mastercraftsman maintained his position as Europe's leading 2-year-old at the Curragh on Sunday, but only barely, as he outgamed Shaweel by a short head in taking the $425,000 National Stakes. Victory for the Danehill Dancer colt gave trainer Aidan O'Brien his seventh victory in Ireland's premier juvenile event as well as his 20th Group 1 triumph of the year. Ridden by Johnny Murtagh, the 9-4 Mastercraftsman was adding to victories in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and the Group 3 Railway Stakes, both at six furlongs at the Curragh. In the Mark Johnston-trained Shaweel he was beating the winner of the six-furlong Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes. It was 2 1/2 lengths back to recent seven-furlong Group 2 Futurity Stakes winner Arazan. Now undefeated after four starts, Mastercraftsman covered the seven furlongs on a Curragh course rated soft to heavy in 1:37.59. O'Brien will now aim him at the seven-furlong Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchmp on Arc Day, Oct. 5, a race he has won five times since 1999 with Ciro, Rock of Gibraltar, Oratorio, Horatio Nelson, and Holy Roman Emperor.
What is in store for Big Brown
Having gotten a useful and successful race into Big Brown last Saturday at Monmouth Park, trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. can sit back and watch the last few rounds of Breeders' Cup prep races run without any feeling any pressure. Dutrow said Big Brown would do all of his training for the Classic at Aqueduct and would breeze strictly on the turf, weather and New York Racing Association management permitting. Dutrow doesn't believe he would gain an advantage by training Big Brown over the new Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita. Dutrow said Big Brown would not ship to California until three days before the Classic. A representative of Tex Sutton, the equine air transport company, visited with Dutrow on Monday and said that Oct. 22 is tentatively planned as the last plane out. Dutrow has reserved several spaces on that plane for Big Brown, Kip Deville (Mile), and Salute the Count (Turf Sprint), with Looky Yonder (Filly and Mare Sprint), Frost Giant (Turf/Marathon), and Pictural (Sprint) possible to go.
www.southerncalracing.com
Yesterday, at Fairplex Park the Pick 6 pool reached over $1.2 million and paid out over $7900 for those who correctly selected six winners. I took the time to cover the Pick 6 races in yesterday's blog and in my analysis of the races I correctly identified all six winners in the sequence. If you played the ticket as I had suggested, it would have cost you $96 and the total return was over 9k inlcuding the five of sixes. Hopefully some of you were able to take advantage.
A closer look at the Group National Stakes from Ireland
Mastercraftsman maintained his position as Europe's leading 2-year-old at the Curragh on Sunday, but only barely, as he outgamed Shaweel by a short head in taking the $425,000 National Stakes. Victory for the Danehill Dancer colt gave trainer Aidan O'Brien his seventh victory in Ireland's premier juvenile event as well as his 20th Group 1 triumph of the year. Ridden by Johnny Murtagh, the 9-4 Mastercraftsman was adding to victories in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and the Group 3 Railway Stakes, both at six furlongs at the Curragh. In the Mark Johnston-trained Shaweel he was beating the winner of the six-furlong Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes. It was 2 1/2 lengths back to recent seven-furlong Group 2 Futurity Stakes winner Arazan. Now undefeated after four starts, Mastercraftsman covered the seven furlongs on a Curragh course rated soft to heavy in 1:37.59. O'Brien will now aim him at the seven-furlong Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchmp on Arc Day, Oct. 5, a race he has won five times since 1999 with Ciro, Rock of Gibraltar, Oratorio, Horatio Nelson, and Holy Roman Emperor.
What is in store for Big Brown
Having gotten a useful and successful race into Big Brown last Saturday at Monmouth Park, trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. can sit back and watch the last few rounds of Breeders' Cup prep races run without any feeling any pressure. Dutrow said Big Brown would do all of his training for the Classic at Aqueduct and would breeze strictly on the turf, weather and New York Racing Association management permitting. Dutrow doesn't believe he would gain an advantage by training Big Brown over the new Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita. Dutrow said Big Brown would not ship to California until three days before the Classic. A representative of Tex Sutton, the equine air transport company, visited with Dutrow on Monday and said that Oct. 22 is tentatively planned as the last plane out. Dutrow has reserved several spaces on that plane for Big Brown, Kip Deville (Mile), and Salute the Count (Turf Sprint), with Looky Yonder (Filly and Mare Sprint), Frost Giant (Turf/Marathon), and Pictural (Sprint) possible to go.
www.southerncalracing.com
HORSERACING : A LOOK AT THE FAIRPLEX PICK 6
The Pick Six carryover at Fairplex Park is up to $466k. I have personally be on hiatus from handicapping the races since the end of Del Mar, but I cannot ignore such a big pool and a chance at a huge score. The Pick 6 will be contested over races 5-10 and will start approximately at 3 PM PST. I have gone thru the card and I think the Pick 6 is hittable and if you are able to get the right horses you may be able to take home a big chunk of the pool for yourself on a relatively cheap ticket.
This is how I view today's Pick 6 sequence. Race 5 is an open 5k claimer to be run at six furlongs and looks like the two morning line favorites #4 Academy Spy(3-1) and #6 Ribomoon(7/2) should be tough in here. Academy Spy(3-1) is in good form and has ton of back class, while Ribomoon picks up jockey Agapito Delgadillo who rode this horse successfully last summer here at Fairplex. The longshot is #7 Peaks End(8-1), who ran a good race last time at this level and will be forwardly placed while having to cover half a furlong less today, which should help. Race 6 is a 20k maiden claimer to be run at 7 seven furlongs. #7 Beckett (5-1) showed good speed last time going two turns on the turf after breaking slowly. Horses who show speed going two turns generally do well when they cut back to seven furlongs and I also like the turf to dirt angle at Fairplex, because if the tight turns. #9 Private Posse should also be tough today as he ran on well in his first outing for trainer Mike Mitchell, whose horses run much better second time out. Race 7 is a 5k claimer to be run at six furlongs and the favorite #9 Gold Datnoid(5/2) is a single in my opinion. Trainer Frank Monteleone dropped her last time and she responded with a nice win. If she repeats she will be tough to deny today under leading man Martin Pedroza. The main danger is #4 Velvety Smooth, who is dropping for trainer Art Sherman. Race 8 is a 25k claimer to be run at a mile and sixteenth. I think #7 Stormin Story (4-1) is a single as he ran a huge race with the addition of blinkers last time out. He may be up in claiming price, but he catches some of the same horses he handled last time out. He is making his third start off the long layoff and has a solid work pattern coming into today's race. Looks to be enough early pace to set things up for him today. If he did not win I would have no clue who else would. Race 9 is an optional claiming race to be run at six and a half furlongs and this race could be won by a number of horses. I will be using four horses in this race and start with the #1 Mean Heat (12-1), who has ran well over the conventional dirt before, is cutting back in distance and makes her third start off the layoff today. At 12-1 she is worth a shot. My next horse I will use is the #2 Havens Lake (9/2), who has never run a bad race and looks to be placed in a good spot. My third horse is #5 Proud Garrisson (7/2), she is undefeated since entering the Jeff Mullins barn and is a must use on your ticket. She could be a single on some tickets. My final horse is #8 Lauen C (6-1), who had a bit off trouble in her last race. The winner from that race Schill came back and won again. She seems to fit versus this group today. I also like that quick 47 and change work over the track on 9/4. Race 10 is the nightcap and if you have gotten this far hopefully you can finish off the day with one last victory. This is a 20k maiden claimer to be run at seven furlongs and I think the favorite #4 Norco Pal (9/5) will make a good account of himself today. He takes the blinkers off and has tactical speed to sit wherever hot jockey Pedro Arrambula wants him. Having said that I also give #9 Weevescent (4-1) a big chance as he exits the same race as the favorite and was off slow from the rail only to beaten by the favorite by a half a length. He is making a second start off the layoff and is likely to improve with a race under his belt. The main danger is #5 Yes Yes Ohyes. That is how I see the Pick 6 sequence for today's huge carryover at Fairplex Park, hopefully I have been able to point out some live horses for you in today's Pick 6 at Fairplex Park.
www.southerncalracing.com
This is how I view today's Pick 6 sequence. Race 5 is an open 5k claimer to be run at six furlongs and looks like the two morning line favorites #4 Academy Spy(3-1) and #6 Ribomoon(7/2) should be tough in here. Academy Spy(3-1) is in good form and has ton of back class, while Ribomoon picks up jockey Agapito Delgadillo who rode this horse successfully last summer here at Fairplex. The longshot is #7 Peaks End(8-1), who ran a good race last time at this level and will be forwardly placed while having to cover half a furlong less today, which should help. Race 6 is a 20k maiden claimer to be run at 7 seven furlongs. #7 Beckett (5-1) showed good speed last time going two turns on the turf after breaking slowly. Horses who show speed going two turns generally do well when they cut back to seven furlongs and I also like the turf to dirt angle at Fairplex, because if the tight turns. #9 Private Posse should also be tough today as he ran on well in his first outing for trainer Mike Mitchell, whose horses run much better second time out. Race 7 is a 5k claimer to be run at six furlongs and the favorite #9 Gold Datnoid(5/2) is a single in my opinion. Trainer Frank Monteleone dropped her last time and she responded with a nice win. If she repeats she will be tough to deny today under leading man Martin Pedroza. The main danger is #4 Velvety Smooth, who is dropping for trainer Art Sherman. Race 8 is a 25k claimer to be run at a mile and sixteenth. I think #7 Stormin Story (4-1) is a single as he ran a huge race with the addition of blinkers last time out. He may be up in claiming price, but he catches some of the same horses he handled last time out. He is making his third start off the long layoff and has a solid work pattern coming into today's race. Looks to be enough early pace to set things up for him today. If he did not win I would have no clue who else would. Race 9 is an optional claiming race to be run at six and a half furlongs and this race could be won by a number of horses. I will be using four horses in this race and start with the #1 Mean Heat (12-1), who has ran well over the conventional dirt before, is cutting back in distance and makes her third start off the layoff today. At 12-1 she is worth a shot. My next horse I will use is the #2 Havens Lake (9/2), who has never run a bad race and looks to be placed in a good spot. My third horse is #5 Proud Garrisson (7/2), she is undefeated since entering the Jeff Mullins barn and is a must use on your ticket. She could be a single on some tickets. My final horse is #8 Lauen C (6-1), who had a bit off trouble in her last race. The winner from that race Schill came back and won again. She seems to fit versus this group today. I also like that quick 47 and change work over the track on 9/4. Race 10 is the nightcap and if you have gotten this far hopefully you can finish off the day with one last victory. This is a 20k maiden claimer to be run at seven furlongs and I think the favorite #4 Norco Pal (9/5) will make a good account of himself today. He takes the blinkers off and has tactical speed to sit wherever hot jockey Pedro Arrambula wants him. Having said that I also give #9 Weevescent (4-1) a big chance as he exits the same race as the favorite and was off slow from the rail only to beaten by the favorite by a half a length. He is making a second start off the layoff and is likely to improve with a race under his belt. The main danger is #5 Yes Yes Ohyes. That is how I see the Pick 6 sequence for today's huge carryover at Fairplex Park, hopefully I have been able to point out some live horses for you in today's Pick 6 at Fairplex Park.
www.southerncalracing.com
Sunday, September 14, 2008
RACE RESULTS FROM ACROSS THE POND AND A HANDICAPPING TIP
I watched a Group 1 race for two year olds from the Curragh in Ireland that was run over the turf at seven furlongs. The turf was listed as heavy and Mastercraftsman, Shaweel and Arazan ran 1-2-3. Arazan was the odds on favorite in today's race and is an impressive looking colt. Would mot be surprised to see one of these colts show up at Oak Tree come Breeders' Cup weekend.
Handicapping Tip #1 - Identify the speed of the race
Who is going to make the lead? Will the pacesetter be alone on the lead or will he/she have company? By being able to identify the speed of the race and how many horses will be on or near the lead, you have solved an important part of the handicapping equation. If you concluded that the race is void of early speed and the horses on or near the lead will have a comfortable trip, you can probably surmise that the closers will have little or no chance of winning this race. You should then be looking at one of the front running types. If you conclude a particular race has an abundance of front runners and the early pace is likely to be fast and contested, then you can probably deduce that a horse coming from off the pace will have a good shot at winning this race. You can then upgrade the chances of the horses coming from off the pace. In both of these scenarios horses who are able to sit close or stalk the early pace setter(s) will have a good chance of winning each race.
A General Point
A few questions you should always ask yourself when handicapping a race. Who is the class of this race? Who is in good current form? Does today's distance suit this particular horse? What is the current track bias? Does this horse like the surface/track they are competing over today? These are just a couple of questions that should be asked when you handicap a race.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
By using the Formlator you are able to determine the individual time of a horse with a few clicks of the mouse. You no longer have to add a fifth of second per beaten length. After you clicked on a couple of buttons the Formulator then converts the past performances into exact speed of each individual horse in the race. This function gives you a very accurate look at how the race may shape up in terms of who or whom will be on or near the early lead and how fast will they be going. This is an valuable tool when trying to identify the speed of the race.
Personal Conclusion
In my opinion early speed is the most precious resource on a race track. It is something that can't really be taught, but can be harnessed. I have witnessed countless numbers of odds on favorites lose to horses who were left alone on the lead and I think betting lone front runners is the most likely way to beat a big favorite. By identifying who or whom will be on or near the early lead you have also identified horses who you may be able to eliminate from contention in a particular race. By eliminating a horse(s) based on his or her running style you have now made the handicapping puzzle that much easier. You have to trust that your opinion on how the race will be set up is correct and go with it.
Future Topic
"Pace makes the race". What is fast, average and slow when it comes to pace? An easy way to determine the pace of race.
www.southerncalracing.com
Handicapping Tip #1 - Identify the speed of the race
Who is going to make the lead? Will the pacesetter be alone on the lead or will he/she have company? By being able to identify the speed of the race and how many horses will be on or near the lead, you have solved an important part of the handicapping equation. If you concluded that the race is void of early speed and the horses on or near the lead will have a comfortable trip, you can probably surmise that the closers will have little or no chance of winning this race. You should then be looking at one of the front running types. If you conclude a particular race has an abundance of front runners and the early pace is likely to be fast and contested, then you can probably deduce that a horse coming from off the pace will have a good shot at winning this race. You can then upgrade the chances of the horses coming from off the pace. In both of these scenarios horses who are able to sit close or stalk the early pace setter(s) will have a good chance of winning each race.
A General Point
A few questions you should always ask yourself when handicapping a race. Who is the class of this race? Who is in good current form? Does today's distance suit this particular horse? What is the current track bias? Does this horse like the surface/track they are competing over today? These are just a couple of questions that should be asked when you handicap a race.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
By using the Formlator you are able to determine the individual time of a horse with a few clicks of the mouse. You no longer have to add a fifth of second per beaten length. After you clicked on a couple of buttons the Formulator then converts the past performances into exact speed of each individual horse in the race. This function gives you a very accurate look at how the race may shape up in terms of who or whom will be on or near the early lead and how fast will they be going. This is an valuable tool when trying to identify the speed of the race.
Personal Conclusion
In my opinion early speed is the most precious resource on a race track. It is something that can't really be taught, but can be harnessed. I have witnessed countless numbers of odds on favorites lose to horses who were left alone on the lead and I think betting lone front runners is the most likely way to beat a big favorite. By identifying who or whom will be on or near the early lead you have also identified horses who you may be able to eliminate from contention in a particular race. By eliminating a horse(s) based on his or her running style you have now made the handicapping puzzle that much easier. You have to trust that your opinion on how the race will be set up is correct and go with it.
Future Topic
"Pace makes the race". What is fast, average and slow when it comes to pace? An easy way to determine the pace of race.
www.southerncalracing.com
Saturday, September 13, 2008
RACE RESULTS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY
Big Brown impressive over the turf and headed to the Classic
Big Brown again got into a dogfight in Saturday's Monmouth Stakes, but the reviews should be more positive after the 3-year-old colt fended off three very talented and accomplished older horses to win the $500,000 turf race. Showing the speed he had displayed earlier in his career, Big Brown led virtually every step of the way under Kent Desormeaux, then turned back the 5-year-old Proudinsky through the stretch to win by a neck before an appreciative Monmouth Park crowd of 17,047.The victory now sets Big Brown up for the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita on Oct. 25. "In my mind, it sets him up very good," Dutrow said. "He looks like he put out a gut-wrenching performance, but we've got the 40 days, and that's what you need for them to get over a race and train up to the next one."
Music Note headed to Ladies' Classic
Music Note continued her love affair with Belmont Park, cruising to an 8 1/2-length win Saturday in the Grade 1, $250,000 Gazelle Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. The Gazelle was her fourth straight win at Belmont, including three straight Grade 1's: the Mother Goose, the Coaching Club American Oaks, and now the Gazelle. It was also a solid rebound effort from her loss by a head to Proud Spell in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga. The mission got easier when Country Star, the only other Grade 1 winner in the field, flipped in the starting gate and was a late scratch. She was comfortable and relaxed," Castellano said. "She did it the right way. At the three-eighths pole, she grabbed the bit. She wanted to go. I took care of her in the lane for her next race." Which will probably be the Breeders' Cup, according to trainer Saeed bin Suroor.
Doremifasollatido wins the Matron
In the Matron, Doremifasollatido split rivals at the top of the lane and pulled clear to secure her second win in four starts.She beat Persistently, who took the wide overland route, by two lengths, with Argyle Pink third. The time was 1:24.74. Eibar Coa guided Doremifasollatido to an ideal ground-saving trip behind the pacesetting Miss Ocean City. They lacked room turning for home before Coa found a narrow seam. "It's all about your horse showing up," Coa said. "She showed up today, broke easily, and showed ability and heart."
Charitable Man takes the Futurity
Charitable Man, breaking from the outside post in the seven-horse field, was first out of the gate. Jockey Alan Garcia reined him in as Charitable Man dropped back to last in the tightly packed field before leveling off. Garcia kept his colt wide and clear of traffic, a key tactical decision. When asked, Charitable Man rejoined the battle with a four-wide move as the field turned for home. The time was 1:24.30 on the drying-out track rated good. Garcia sees Charitable Man going all the way. "He wants to go longer," Garcia said. "He's going to the Kentucky Derby." It was a satisfying race for McLaughlin as Girolamo, his other colt in the race, finished fourth. "We're just very happy that one of them won and that Alan chose the right one," McLaughlin said. "Hopefully, he'll have a very bright future. He was wide the whole way, which didn't help him." McLaughlin said he will point Charitable Man to the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes here on Oct. 4.
Other Stakes Action
Belmont Park Allied Forces: Pascal; Grade 3 Noble Damsel: Criminologist
Arlington Park - Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity: Terrain
www.souhterncalracing.com
Big Brown again got into a dogfight in Saturday's Monmouth Stakes, but the reviews should be more positive after the 3-year-old colt fended off three very talented and accomplished older horses to win the $500,000 turf race. Showing the speed he had displayed earlier in his career, Big Brown led virtually every step of the way under Kent Desormeaux, then turned back the 5-year-old Proudinsky through the stretch to win by a neck before an appreciative Monmouth Park crowd of 17,047.The victory now sets Big Brown up for the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita on Oct. 25. "In my mind, it sets him up very good," Dutrow said. "He looks like he put out a gut-wrenching performance, but we've got the 40 days, and that's what you need for them to get over a race and train up to the next one."
Music Note headed to Ladies' Classic
Music Note continued her love affair with Belmont Park, cruising to an 8 1/2-length win Saturday in the Grade 1, $250,000 Gazelle Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. The Gazelle was her fourth straight win at Belmont, including three straight Grade 1's: the Mother Goose, the Coaching Club American Oaks, and now the Gazelle. It was also a solid rebound effort from her loss by a head to Proud Spell in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga. The mission got easier when Country Star, the only other Grade 1 winner in the field, flipped in the starting gate and was a late scratch. She was comfortable and relaxed," Castellano said. "She did it the right way. At the three-eighths pole, she grabbed the bit. She wanted to go. I took care of her in the lane for her next race." Which will probably be the Breeders' Cup, according to trainer Saeed bin Suroor.
Doremifasollatido wins the Matron
In the Matron, Doremifasollatido split rivals at the top of the lane and pulled clear to secure her second win in four starts.She beat Persistently, who took the wide overland route, by two lengths, with Argyle Pink third. The time was 1:24.74. Eibar Coa guided Doremifasollatido to an ideal ground-saving trip behind the pacesetting Miss Ocean City. They lacked room turning for home before Coa found a narrow seam. "It's all about your horse showing up," Coa said. "She showed up today, broke easily, and showed ability and heart."
Charitable Man takes the Futurity
Charitable Man, breaking from the outside post in the seven-horse field, was first out of the gate. Jockey Alan Garcia reined him in as Charitable Man dropped back to last in the tightly packed field before leveling off. Garcia kept his colt wide and clear of traffic, a key tactical decision. When asked, Charitable Man rejoined the battle with a four-wide move as the field turned for home. The time was 1:24.30 on the drying-out track rated good. Garcia sees Charitable Man going all the way. "He wants to go longer," Garcia said. "He's going to the Kentucky Derby." It was a satisfying race for McLaughlin as Girolamo, his other colt in the race, finished fourth. "We're just very happy that one of them won and that Alan chose the right one," McLaughlin said. "Hopefully, he'll have a very bright future. He was wide the whole way, which didn't help him." McLaughlin said he will point Charitable Man to the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes here on Oct. 4.
Other Stakes Action
Belmont Park Allied Forces: Pascal; Grade 3 Noble Damsel: Criminologist
Arlington Park - Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity: Terrain
www.souhterncalracing.com
Friday, September 12, 2008
HORSE RACING NEWS SATURDAY STAKES PREVIEW FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY
Big Stakes actions at Belmont on Saturday
Saturday is a must watch or you need to set your DVR for anyone who is planning on playing the up coming Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. Music Note returns to her favorite track Saturday for the Grade 1, $250,000 Gazelle Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at Belmont Park. The Gazelle is the top attraction on a card that includes three other graded stakes: the Grade 3, $100,000 Noble Damsel for fillies and mares on the turf and a pair of Grade 2, $250,000 stakes for 2-year-olds, the Futurity and the Matron for fillies. Music Note has won her last three races at Belmont, a stretch that started with an allowance race and continued with a pair of Grade 1 wins in the Mother Goose and the Coaching Club American Oaks. Country Star figures to be Music Note's stiffest challenger in Saturday's Grade 1 Gazelle at Belmont Park. But in a few weeks, Country Star will become Music Note's stablemate. Frankel said Thursday that if Country Star were to run well against Music Note in the Gazelle, he would consider running her in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic at Santa Anita on Oct. 24. Country Star already has proven successful over synthetic surfaces, having won the Alcibiades at Keeneland as a 2-year-old and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks earlier this year.
Entries for all the stakes action Saturday at Belmont
Allied Forces S.
1 1/8 Miles (Inner turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Big Stick Garcia Alan McLaughlin Kiaran P 118 L 5-2
2 2 Pascal Velasquez C Contessa Gary C 118 L 15-1
3 3 Atwell Gomez G K Hennig Mark 118 L 5-1
4 4 Slambino Hill C Alexander Frank A 118 L 8-1
5 5 Southwest Coa E M Jenkins Rodney 118 L 7-2
6 6 Ready's Image Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 118 L 9-2
7 7 Discreet Treasure Castellano J J Hough Stanley M 118 L 5-1
8 MTO That'srightofficer Prado E S Schosberg Richard 118 L 7-2
Noble Damsel H. (G3)
1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Say You Will (IRE) Velazquez J R bin Suroor Saeed 114 L 4-1
2 2 Cozzi Capital Velasquez C Canet Julian 116 L 20-1
3 3 Classic Neel Bridgmohan S X Violette, Jr. R A 114 L 8-1
4 4 Nans Joy (IRE) Maragh R Mott William I 115 FTL 10-1
5 5 Trouble Maker Coa E M Albertrani Thomas 115 L 6-1
6 6 Criminologist Prado E S McGaughey III C R 119 L 3-1
7 7 Waquoit's Love Gomez G K Hills Timothy A 115 L 8-1
8 8 Sefroua Garcia Alan Rouget Jean-Claude 113 9-2
9 9 Chestoria Hill C Badgett William Jr 116 8-1
Futurity S. (G2)
7 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 High Mesa Saez G Jones J Larry 120 FTL 10-1
2 2 Kensei Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 120 L 15-1
3 3 Flying Pegasus Velasquez C Nicks Ralph E 120 L 20-1
4 4 Friesan Fire Thompson T J Jones J Larry 120 FTL 10-1
5 5 Gone Astray Gomez G K McGaughey III C R 120 L 3-1
6 6 Girolamo Velazquez J R McLaughlin Kiaran P 120 L 7-2
7 7 Charitable Man Garcia Alan McLaughlin Kiaran P 120 L 7-5
Matron S. (G2)
7 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Doremifasollatido Coa E M Jerkens James A 119 L 4-1
2 2 On the Menu Thompson T J Jones J Larry 119 FTL 10-1
3 3 Vegas Wedding Luzzi M J Lewis Lisa L 119 L 20-1
4 4 Miss Ocean City Velazquez J R Zito Nicholas P 119 L 7-2
5 5 Argyle Pink Velasquez C Kenneally Eddie 119 L 5-1
6 6 Heavenly Vision Prado E S Baffert Bob 119 L 5-2
7 7 Obsequious Gomez G K Gray Elizabeth 119 L 12-1
8 8 Persistently Garcia Alan McGaughey III C R 119 L 8-1
9 9 Saintly Rose Nakatani C S Vega Richard 119 L 20-1
Gazelle S. (G1)
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Awesome I Am Maragh R Terranova, II John P 115 L 12-1
2 2 Hamsa Coa E M Tagg Barclay 115 L 8-1
3 3 Country Star Velazquez J R Frankel Robert 119 L 5-2
4 4 Mega Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 115 L 20-1
5 5 Music Note Castellano J J bin Suroor Saeed 122 L 2-5
Race to watch for possible contenders for Breeders' Cup Juvenile
No, it has nothing to do with class warfare, but think of the Arlington-Washington Futurity in terms of the haves and the have-nots. That is, those 2-year-olds that have already raced farther than a sprint distance, and those who have not.
The Grade 3, $200,000 Futurity drew a field of 14. Four horses have raced as far as the Futurity's one-mile distance, the rest are hoping to stretch out with success. And the race also forms crossroads in terms of quality: A horse that runs well can advance to more major autumn stakes. Those that flop might merely have been precocious summer horses that developed faster than their peers.
Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3)
1 Mile (All Weather Track) | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Willie to To Riggs T Goodridge Ronald O 117 L 50-1
2 2 Ready Racer Borel C H Flint Bernard S 117 L 12-1
3 3 My Man Moran Graham J Quinn Jerry 117 L 30-1
4 4 His Greatness Solis A Salazar Marco P 117 FTL 12-1
5 5 Malibu Maverick Ferrer J C Werner Ronny 117 L 12-1
6 6 Jose Adan Meier B Catalano Wayne M 119 L 12-1
7 7 Zion Baird E T Asmussen Steven M 117 L 20-1
8 8 My Dominick James Thornton T Rivelli Larry 119 L 9-2
9 9 Schleprock Karlsson I Gulick James M 117 L 50-1
10 10 Terrain Theriot H J II Stall Albert M Jr 122 L 10-1
11 11 Advice Douglas R R Pletcher Todd A 117 L 5-1
12 12 Capt. Candyman Can Leparoux J R Wilkes Ian R 119 5-2
13 13 Giant Oak Alvarado J Block Chris M 117 L 15-1
14 14 Investor Emigh C A Byrne Patrick B 117 L 15-1
Big Brown hasn't scared anyone off in the Monmouth Stakes
As eager as Big Brown's connections are to run him on the turf in Saturday's $500,000Monmouth Stakes, several of his opponents are just as eager to face him in the 1 1/8mile turf race at Monmouth Park. Big Brown figures to be a strong favorite in the Monmouth Stakes, there are several well-seasoned and well-intended rivals among his 10 challengers. While Big Brown is using this as a stepping-stone to the more lucrative $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic next month, this could be viewed as a Breeders' Cup of sorts for the likes of Shakis and Proudinsky, who are graded stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles on turf. There are no Breeders' Cup races run on turf at 1 1/8miles.
Monmouth S.
1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Nightscape Ortiz F L DeMario Charles A 119 L 30-1
2 2 Hotstufanthensome Lezcano J Pompay Terri 119 L 12-1
3 3 Shakis (IRE) Bravo J McLaughlin Kiaran P 121 L 7-2
4 4 Big Brown Desormeaux K J Dutrow, Jr. R E 120 L 2-1
5 5 Kiss the Kid Trujillo E Tarrant Amy 119 L 10-1
6 6 Proudinsky (GER) Dominguez R A Frankel Robert 119 L 4-1
7 7 Drum Major Carmouche K Weaver George 119 L 8-1
8 8 Get Serious Fragoso P McBurney Patrick B 119 L 15-1
9 9 Fagedaboudit Sal Cotto P L Jr Carvajal, Jr. Luis 121 L 30-1
10 10 Ballonenostrikes Centeno D E Manning Dennis J 119 L 20-1
11 11 Silver Tree Castro E Mott William I 121 L 6-1
www.southerncalracing.com
Saturday is a must watch or you need to set your DVR for anyone who is planning on playing the up coming Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. Music Note returns to her favorite track Saturday for the Grade 1, $250,000 Gazelle Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at Belmont Park. The Gazelle is the top attraction on a card that includes three other graded stakes: the Grade 3, $100,000 Noble Damsel for fillies and mares on the turf and a pair of Grade 2, $250,000 stakes for 2-year-olds, the Futurity and the Matron for fillies. Music Note has won her last three races at Belmont, a stretch that started with an allowance race and continued with a pair of Grade 1 wins in the Mother Goose and the Coaching Club American Oaks. Country Star figures to be Music Note's stiffest challenger in Saturday's Grade 1 Gazelle at Belmont Park. But in a few weeks, Country Star will become Music Note's stablemate. Frankel said Thursday that if Country Star were to run well against Music Note in the Gazelle, he would consider running her in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic at Santa Anita on Oct. 24. Country Star already has proven successful over synthetic surfaces, having won the Alcibiades at Keeneland as a 2-year-old and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks earlier this year.
Entries for all the stakes action Saturday at Belmont
Allied Forces S.
1 1/8 Miles (Inner turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Big Stick Garcia Alan McLaughlin Kiaran P 118 L 5-2
2 2 Pascal Velasquez C Contessa Gary C 118 L 15-1
3 3 Atwell Gomez G K Hennig Mark 118 L 5-1
4 4 Slambino Hill C Alexander Frank A 118 L 8-1
5 5 Southwest Coa E M Jenkins Rodney 118 L 7-2
6 6 Ready's Image Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 118 L 9-2
7 7 Discreet Treasure Castellano J J Hough Stanley M 118 L 5-1
8 MTO That'srightofficer Prado E S Schosberg Richard 118 L 7-2
Noble Damsel H. (G3)
1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Say You Will (IRE) Velazquez J R bin Suroor Saeed 114 L 4-1
2 2 Cozzi Capital Velasquez C Canet Julian 116 L 20-1
3 3 Classic Neel Bridgmohan S X Violette, Jr. R A 114 L 8-1
4 4 Nans Joy (IRE) Maragh R Mott William I 115 FTL 10-1
5 5 Trouble Maker Coa E M Albertrani Thomas 115 L 6-1
6 6 Criminologist Prado E S McGaughey III C R 119 L 3-1
7 7 Waquoit's Love Gomez G K Hills Timothy A 115 L 8-1
8 8 Sefroua Garcia Alan Rouget Jean-Claude 113 9-2
9 9 Chestoria Hill C Badgett William Jr 116 8-1
Futurity S. (G2)
7 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 High Mesa Saez G Jones J Larry 120 FTL 10-1
2 2 Kensei Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 120 L 15-1
3 3 Flying Pegasus Velasquez C Nicks Ralph E 120 L 20-1
4 4 Friesan Fire Thompson T J Jones J Larry 120 FTL 10-1
5 5 Gone Astray Gomez G K McGaughey III C R 120 L 3-1
6 6 Girolamo Velazquez J R McLaughlin Kiaran P 120 L 7-2
7 7 Charitable Man Garcia Alan McLaughlin Kiaran P 120 L 7-5
Matron S. (G2)
7 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Doremifasollatido Coa E M Jerkens James A 119 L 4-1
2 2 On the Menu Thompson T J Jones J Larry 119 FTL 10-1
3 3 Vegas Wedding Luzzi M J Lewis Lisa L 119 L 20-1
4 4 Miss Ocean City Velazquez J R Zito Nicholas P 119 L 7-2
5 5 Argyle Pink Velasquez C Kenneally Eddie 119 L 5-1
6 6 Heavenly Vision Prado E S Baffert Bob 119 L 5-2
7 7 Obsequious Gomez G K Gray Elizabeth 119 L 12-1
8 8 Persistently Garcia Alan McGaughey III C R 119 L 8-1
9 9 Saintly Rose Nakatani C S Vega Richard 119 L 20-1
Gazelle S. (G1)
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Awesome I Am Maragh R Terranova, II John P 115 L 12-1
2 2 Hamsa Coa E M Tagg Barclay 115 L 8-1
3 3 Country Star Velazquez J R Frankel Robert 119 L 5-2
4 4 Mega Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 115 L 20-1
5 5 Music Note Castellano J J bin Suroor Saeed 122 L 2-5
Race to watch for possible contenders for Breeders' Cup Juvenile
No, it has nothing to do with class warfare, but think of the Arlington-Washington Futurity in terms of the haves and the have-nots. That is, those 2-year-olds that have already raced farther than a sprint distance, and those who have not.
The Grade 3, $200,000 Futurity drew a field of 14. Four horses have raced as far as the Futurity's one-mile distance, the rest are hoping to stretch out with success. And the race also forms crossroads in terms of quality: A horse that runs well can advance to more major autumn stakes. Those that flop might merely have been precocious summer horses that developed faster than their peers.
Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3)
1 Mile (All Weather Track) | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Willie to To Riggs T Goodridge Ronald O 117 L 50-1
2 2 Ready Racer Borel C H Flint Bernard S 117 L 12-1
3 3 My Man Moran Graham J Quinn Jerry 117 L 30-1
4 4 His Greatness Solis A Salazar Marco P 117 FTL 12-1
5 5 Malibu Maverick Ferrer J C Werner Ronny 117 L 12-1
6 6 Jose Adan Meier B Catalano Wayne M 119 L 12-1
7 7 Zion Baird E T Asmussen Steven M 117 L 20-1
8 8 My Dominick James Thornton T Rivelli Larry 119 L 9-2
9 9 Schleprock Karlsson I Gulick James M 117 L 50-1
10 10 Terrain Theriot H J II Stall Albert M Jr 122 L 10-1
11 11 Advice Douglas R R Pletcher Todd A 117 L 5-1
12 12 Capt. Candyman Can Leparoux J R Wilkes Ian R 119 5-2
13 13 Giant Oak Alvarado J Block Chris M 117 L 15-1
14 14 Investor Emigh C A Byrne Patrick B 117 L 15-1
Big Brown hasn't scared anyone off in the Monmouth Stakes
As eager as Big Brown's connections are to run him on the turf in Saturday's $500,000Monmouth Stakes, several of his opponents are just as eager to face him in the 1 1/8mile turf race at Monmouth Park. Big Brown figures to be a strong favorite in the Monmouth Stakes, there are several well-seasoned and well-intended rivals among his 10 challengers. While Big Brown is using this as a stepping-stone to the more lucrative $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic next month, this could be viewed as a Breeders' Cup of sorts for the likes of Shakis and Proudinsky, who are graded stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles on turf. There are no Breeders' Cup races run on turf at 1 1/8miles.
Monmouth S.
1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Nightscape Ortiz F L DeMario Charles A 119 L 30-1
2 2 Hotstufanthensome Lezcano J Pompay Terri 119 L 12-1
3 3 Shakis (IRE) Bravo J McLaughlin Kiaran P 121 L 7-2
4 4 Big Brown Desormeaux K J Dutrow, Jr. R E 120 L 2-1
5 5 Kiss the Kid Trujillo E Tarrant Amy 119 L 10-1
6 6 Proudinsky (GER) Dominguez R A Frankel Robert 119 L 4-1
7 7 Drum Major Carmouche K Weaver George 119 L 8-1
8 8 Get Serious Fragoso P McBurney Patrick B 119 L 15-1
9 9 Fagedaboudit Sal Cotto P L Jr Carvajal, Jr. Luis 121 L 30-1
10 10 Ballonenostrikes Centeno D E Manning Dennis J 119 L 20-1
11 11 Silver Tree Castro E Mott William I 121 L 6-1
www.southerncalracing.com
Thursday, September 11, 2008
HORSE RACING NEWS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY
Pick 6 carryover on both coasts
There will be Pick 6 carryover of $202,044 at Belmont Park heading into Thursday’s card.The Pick 6 was a carryover of $63,135 heading into Wednesday’s card after the wager went unhit on Sunday. The pick six begins with race 4 (2:35 Eastern post) and includes four turf races.
A small pick six carryover that was not hit Wednesday at Fairplex Park has generated a big carryover Thursday at Fairplex, where bettors will shoot for a two-day jackpot of $138,014. Here is a quick look at the Pick 6 races courtesy of Brad Free:
Race 5 is a maiden-claiming sprint for 2-year-olds; Warren’s Tony R. is the tepid 2-1favorite on the track morning line based on his third-place finish last out at Del Mar.
Race 6 includes one of the day’s shortest prices. Peace Prospect is favored at 7-5 even though he has failed to hit the board in eight starts. His speed figures tower over the field in the $20,000 maiden-claiming sprint however, and leading rider Martin Pedroza is up.
Race 7 is a $6,250 claiming sprint; Pedroza rides 8-5 favorite Blaze It.
Race 8 is a maiden-claiming sprint for California-bred 2-year-old fillies, and Fastcar to Freedom is the 9-5 favorite based on successive runner-up finishes at Del Mar.
Race 9 is a wide-open allowance sprint for older horses bred in California. One Chin Again is favored at 3-1.
Race 10 favorite Legacy North is 6-5 in a split of the eighth race for 2-year-old fillies. If she is not as good as she looks on paper, second-time starter Not So Good and first-time starter Don’t Tell Sandi are viable alternatives.
Indian Blessing to face the boys?
Trainer Bob Baffert continues to weigh his options with his champion filly Indian Blessing, including a possible start against the boys in the Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont on Sept. 27.
Though the more likely option for Indian Blessing is the Grade 2, $150,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap against females here Sept. 20, Baffert on Wednesday opened the door a crack to running against the boys.
“Right now, she’s doing great, I want to keep her fit and fresh and watch the sprint division real close,” Baffert said Wednesday from the horse sales at Keeneland.
When asked if that meant the male sprint division, Baffert said, “Yeah. I just want to keep my options open. The Gallant Bloom is an option; so is the Vosburgh.”
Other possible for Indian Blessing if she takes on the boys
Fabulous Strike and Bustin Stones were forced to miss the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes at Saratoga on July 26 due to foot issues, but both are now healthy and targeting the Vosburgh.
Another Breeders' Cup contender for Baffert
Heavenly Vision, a daughter of Forestry, won her debut by 4 1/4 lengths at Saratoga on Aug.24th, running six furlongs in 1:10.82. Will be sent out in the Grade 2 Matron Stakes for juvenile fillies, which will be run at 7 furlongs on Saturday at Belmont Park. Baffert is of to a fast start at Belmont Park and looks to be loaded for the upcoming Breeders' Cup, as Baffert also trains the Del Mar Futurity winner in Midshipman and don't forget about Tough Tiz's Sis who destroyed the field in the Ruffian last weekend at Belmont.
www.southerncalracing.com
There will be Pick 6 carryover of $202,044 at Belmont Park heading into Thursday’s card.The Pick 6 was a carryover of $63,135 heading into Wednesday’s card after the wager went unhit on Sunday. The pick six begins with race 4 (2:35 Eastern post) and includes four turf races.
A small pick six carryover that was not hit Wednesday at Fairplex Park has generated a big carryover Thursday at Fairplex, where bettors will shoot for a two-day jackpot of $138,014. Here is a quick look at the Pick 6 races courtesy of Brad Free:
Race 5 is a maiden-claiming sprint for 2-year-olds; Warren’s Tony R. is the tepid 2-1favorite on the track morning line based on his third-place finish last out at Del Mar.
Race 6 includes one of the day’s shortest prices. Peace Prospect is favored at 7-5 even though he has failed to hit the board in eight starts. His speed figures tower over the field in the $20,000 maiden-claiming sprint however, and leading rider Martin Pedroza is up.
Race 7 is a $6,250 claiming sprint; Pedroza rides 8-5 favorite Blaze It.
Race 8 is a maiden-claiming sprint for California-bred 2-year-old fillies, and Fastcar to Freedom is the 9-5 favorite based on successive runner-up finishes at Del Mar.
Race 9 is a wide-open allowance sprint for older horses bred in California. One Chin Again is favored at 3-1.
Race 10 favorite Legacy North is 6-5 in a split of the eighth race for 2-year-old fillies. If she is not as good as she looks on paper, second-time starter Not So Good and first-time starter Don’t Tell Sandi are viable alternatives.
Indian Blessing to face the boys?
Trainer Bob Baffert continues to weigh his options with his champion filly Indian Blessing, including a possible start against the boys in the Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont on Sept. 27.
Though the more likely option for Indian Blessing is the Grade 2, $150,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap against females here Sept. 20, Baffert on Wednesday opened the door a crack to running against the boys.
“Right now, she’s doing great, I want to keep her fit and fresh and watch the sprint division real close,” Baffert said Wednesday from the horse sales at Keeneland.
When asked if that meant the male sprint division, Baffert said, “Yeah. I just want to keep my options open. The Gallant Bloom is an option; so is the Vosburgh.”
Other possible for Indian Blessing if she takes on the boys
Fabulous Strike and Bustin Stones were forced to miss the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes at Saratoga on July 26 due to foot issues, but both are now healthy and targeting the Vosburgh.
Another Breeders' Cup contender for Baffert
Heavenly Vision, a daughter of Forestry, won her debut by 4 1/4 lengths at Saratoga on Aug.24th, running six furlongs in 1:10.82. Will be sent out in the Grade 2 Matron Stakes for juvenile fillies, which will be run at 7 furlongs on Saturday at Belmont Park. Baffert is of to a fast start at Belmont Park and looks to be loaded for the upcoming Breeders' Cup, as Baffert also trains the Del Mar Futurity winner in Midshipman and don't forget about Tough Tiz's Sis who destroyed the field in the Ruffian last weekend at Belmont.
www.southerncalracing.com
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
HORSERACING : HANDICAPPING TIP #1 IDENTIFY THE SPEED OF THE RACE
Handicapping Tip #1 - Identify the speed of the race
Who is going to make the lead? Will the pacesetter be alone on the lead or will he/she have company? By being able to identify the speed of the race and how many horses will be on or near the lead, you have solved an important part of the handicapping equation. If you concluded that the race is void of early speed and the horses on or near the lead will have a comfortable trip, you can probably surmise that the closers will have little or no chance of winning this race. You should then be looking at one of the front running types. If you conclude a particular race has an abundance of front runners and the early pace is likely to be fast and contested, then you can probably deduce that a horse coming from off the pace will have a good shot at winning this race. You can then upgrade the chances of the horses coming from off the pace. In both of these scenarios horses who are able to sit close or stalk the early pace setter(s) will have a good chance of winning each race.
A General Point
A few questions you should always ask yourself when handicapping a race. Who is the class of this race? Who is in good current form? Does today's distance suit this particular horse? What is the current track bias? Does this horse like the surface/track they are competing over today? These are just a couple of questions that should be asked when you handicap a race.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
By using the Formlator you are able to determine the individual time of a horse with a few clicks of the mouse. You no longer have to add a fifth of second per beaten length. After you clicked on a couple of buttons the Formulator then converts the past performances into exact speed of each individual horse in the race. This function gives you a very accurate look at how the race may shape up in terms of who or whom will be on or near the early lead and how fast will they be going. This is an valuable tool when trying to identify the speed of the race.
Personal Conclusion
In my opinion early speed is the most precious resource on a race track. It is something that can't really be taught, but can be harnessed. I have witnessed countless numbers of odds on favorites lose to horses who were left alone on the lead and I think betting lone front runners is the most likely way to beat a big favorite. By identifying who or whom will be on or near the early lead you have also identified horses who you may be able to eliminate from contention in a particular race. By eliminating a horse(s) based on his or her running style you have now made the handicapping puzzle that much easier. You have to trust that your opinion on how the race will be set up is correct and go with it.
Future Topic
"Pace makes the race". What is fast, average and slow when it comes to pace? An easy way to determine the pace of race.
www.southerncalracing.com
Who is going to make the lead? Will the pacesetter be alone on the lead or will he/she have company? By being able to identify the speed of the race and how many horses will be on or near the lead, you have solved an important part of the handicapping equation. If you concluded that the race is void of early speed and the horses on or near the lead will have a comfortable trip, you can probably surmise that the closers will have little or no chance of winning this race. You should then be looking at one of the front running types. If you conclude a particular race has an abundance of front runners and the early pace is likely to be fast and contested, then you can probably deduce that a horse coming from off the pace will have a good shot at winning this race. You can then upgrade the chances of the horses coming from off the pace. In both of these scenarios horses who are able to sit close or stalk the early pace setter(s) will have a good chance of winning each race.
A General Point
A few questions you should always ask yourself when handicapping a race. Who is the class of this race? Who is in good current form? Does today's distance suit this particular horse? What is the current track bias? Does this horse like the surface/track they are competing over today? These are just a couple of questions that should be asked when you handicap a race.
How the Formulator has made handicapping easier
By using the Formlator you are able to determine the individual time of a horse with a few clicks of the mouse. You no longer have to add a fifth of second per beaten length. After you clicked on a couple of buttons the Formulator then converts the past performances into exact speed of each individual horse in the race. This function gives you a very accurate look at how the race may shape up in terms of who or whom will be on or near the early lead and how fast will they be going. This is an valuable tool when trying to identify the speed of the race.
Personal Conclusion
In my opinion early speed is the most precious resource on a race track. It is something that can't really be taught, but can be harnessed. I have witnessed countless numbers of odds on favorites lose to horses who were left alone on the lead and I think betting lone front runners is the most likely way to beat a big favorite. By identifying who or whom will be on or near the early lead you have also identified horses who you may be able to eliminate from contention in a particular race. By eliminating a horse(s) based on his or her running style you have now made the handicapping puzzle that much easier. You have to trust that your opinion on how the race will be set up is correct and go with it.
Future Topic
"Pace makes the race". What is fast, average and slow when it comes to pace? An easy way to determine the pace of race.
www.southerncalracing.com
Horse Racing News : Alternatives Come Breeders' Cup Weekend
This year the Breeders' Cup will be contested over an artificial surface for the first time and while the connections of Big Brown and Curlin may be skeptical, others around the world are looking for a chance to show their wears for all the world to see. Here is a look at some possible contenders you may or may not have heard of and a historical look at their chances courtesy of Steven Davidowitz.
The possible contenders
Casino Drive may have been forgotten by many after he was forced to scratch from the Belmont Stakes due to a very minor foot bruise. But after front-running Da’ Tara won such a weak renewal of the Belmont with Big Brown failing to contend, it is reasonable to believe that a healthy Casino Drive would have been a tough customer. Frankly, I thought Casino Drive’s thoroughly professional victory in the Peter Pan – in just his second career outing – was vivid testimony to his extreme high class.
Henrythenavigator, the number one turf miler in Europe until he was a lackluster fifth to the filly Goldikova on very soft ground in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamps on Sunday, was pointing for the Classic. But after that defeat Henrythenagivator now is more likely for the BC Mile. Meanwhile trainer Aidan O’Brien strongly hinted that he may send stablemate Duke of Marmalade to the Classic in solid form, with a win in the Juddmonte International Stakes at Newmarket last month.
A historical look
Ibn Bay was second to Unbridled in the 1990 Classic; Arcangues scored a stunning, historic upset in 1993; Swain was an unlucky third to Awesome Again in 1998 after failing to keep a straight course while seemingly on his way to victory; and Giant’s Causeway and Sakhee pushed two-time BC Classic winner Tiznow to the limit in successive 2000 and 2001 BC Classics.
We already know that several internationally minded trainers are preparing their top horses for an aggressive assault in the expanded two-day Breeders' Cup extravaganza on turf and synthetic surfaces. Moreover, history dictates that some of these top horses will be extremely competitive and may be bargains in the futures and at the parimutuel windows.
www.southerncalracing.com
The possible contenders
Casino Drive may have been forgotten by many after he was forced to scratch from the Belmont Stakes due to a very minor foot bruise. But after front-running Da’ Tara won such a weak renewal of the Belmont with Big Brown failing to contend, it is reasonable to believe that a healthy Casino Drive would have been a tough customer. Frankly, I thought Casino Drive’s thoroughly professional victory in the Peter Pan – in just his second career outing – was vivid testimony to his extreme high class.
Henrythenavigator, the number one turf miler in Europe until he was a lackluster fifth to the filly Goldikova on very soft ground in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamps on Sunday, was pointing for the Classic. But after that defeat Henrythenagivator now is more likely for the BC Mile. Meanwhile trainer Aidan O’Brien strongly hinted that he may send stablemate Duke of Marmalade to the Classic in solid form, with a win in the Juddmonte International Stakes at Newmarket last month.
A historical look
Ibn Bay was second to Unbridled in the 1990 Classic; Arcangues scored a stunning, historic upset in 1993; Swain was an unlucky third to Awesome Again in 1998 after failing to keep a straight course while seemingly on his way to victory; and Giant’s Causeway and Sakhee pushed two-time BC Classic winner Tiznow to the limit in successive 2000 and 2001 BC Classics.
We already know that several internationally minded trainers are preparing their top horses for an aggressive assault in the expanded two-day Breeders' Cup extravaganza on turf and synthetic surfaces. Moreover, history dictates that some of these top horses will be extremely competitive and may be bargains in the futures and at the parimutuel windows.
www.southerncalracing.com
Monday, September 8, 2008
Race Results : Win and You're In and Who Is Rolling 7's at Fairplex
Baffert's second string romps at Belmont and is headed to Breeders' Cup.
Tough Tiz's Sis had been chasing the top-ranked mare in the country, Zenyatta, all summer, thus was meeting lesser company here in the Grade 1 Ruffian. Tough Tiz's Sis, a daughter of Tiznow, has won 8 of 20 starts and earned $903,792. She will be pointed to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic at Santa Anita on Oct. 24. She covered 3/4 in 1:09 and change and ran the mile and sixteenth in 1:40.46 over a sloppy track.
Indian Blessing was scratched from the Ruffian and here are her new plans.
Baffert opted to scratch Indian Blessing in order to keep her sprinting and plans to run her in either next Saturday's $400,000 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes at six furlongs or in the Grade 2, $150,000 Gallant Bloom going 6 1/2 furlongs at Belmont on Sept. 20.
Delightful Kiss earns a trip to first ever Breeders' Cup Dirt Marathon.
Delightful Kiss entered Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Turfway Park Fall Championship without having raced over a synthetic track or farther than 1 1/8 miles. It didn't show in his performance. Unleashing an eye-catching rally under Calvin Borel on the final turn of the 1 1/2-mile stakes, Delightful Kiss ($19) swooped to the lead and maintained a comfortable advantage in the stretch to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Star Plus. In winning the Turfway Park Fall Championship, a Win and You're In challenge race, Delightful Kiss qualified for the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Marathon next month at Santa Anita. That race is also contested at 1 1/2 miles over a synthetic track.
Surprise in Woodbine Mile who won and who did not show up.
Locally-based Rahy's Attorney pulled off a 12-1 upset in Sunday's $1,078,200 Woodbine Mile, while heavily favored Kip Deville could only manage fifth in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Win and You’re In race. Rahy's Attorney paid $27.30 and earned $660,000 for the partnership of Ellie Boje Farm, Mitch Peters, Dean Read, and Jim and Jean MacLellan. He earned a guaranteed starting spot in the BC Mile at Santa Anita on Oct. 25 but is ineligible to the Breeders' Cup program, and it would cost $180,000 to supplement him to the Mile.
As for defending Breeders' Cup Mile winner jockey Cornelio Velasquez offered no concrete excuses for the 2007 Woodbine Mile runner-up Kip Deville, who was beaten five lengths. "He did not try today," said Velasquez. "He wasn’t running. The position was fine. Whether he did not like the track, I don’t know."
Rolling 7's at Fairplex
Jockey Martin Pedroza who is known as the "king of the bull ring" and he is proving it already this year at Fariplex Park. In the first 3 days of racing Pedroza has twice won 7 races in a single day and has won with 17 of his first 32 races. Pedroza owns the single season record for victories at Fairplex Park with 51 and he looks like he is on his way to besting that mark this year.
www.southerncalracing.com
Tough Tiz's Sis had been chasing the top-ranked mare in the country, Zenyatta, all summer, thus was meeting lesser company here in the Grade 1 Ruffian. Tough Tiz's Sis, a daughter of Tiznow, has won 8 of 20 starts and earned $903,792. She will be pointed to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic at Santa Anita on Oct. 24. She covered 3/4 in 1:09 and change and ran the mile and sixteenth in 1:40.46 over a sloppy track.
Indian Blessing was scratched from the Ruffian and here are her new plans.
Baffert opted to scratch Indian Blessing in order to keep her sprinting and plans to run her in either next Saturday's $400,000 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes at six furlongs or in the Grade 2, $150,000 Gallant Bloom going 6 1/2 furlongs at Belmont on Sept. 20.
Delightful Kiss earns a trip to first ever Breeders' Cup Dirt Marathon.
Delightful Kiss entered Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Turfway Park Fall Championship without having raced over a synthetic track or farther than 1 1/8 miles. It didn't show in his performance. Unleashing an eye-catching rally under Calvin Borel on the final turn of the 1 1/2-mile stakes, Delightful Kiss ($19) swooped to the lead and maintained a comfortable advantage in the stretch to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Star Plus. In winning the Turfway Park Fall Championship, a Win and You're In challenge race, Delightful Kiss qualified for the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Marathon next month at Santa Anita. That race is also contested at 1 1/2 miles over a synthetic track.
Surprise in Woodbine Mile who won and who did not show up.
Locally-based Rahy's Attorney pulled off a 12-1 upset in Sunday's $1,078,200 Woodbine Mile, while heavily favored Kip Deville could only manage fifth in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Win and You’re In race. Rahy's Attorney paid $27.30 and earned $660,000 for the partnership of Ellie Boje Farm, Mitch Peters, Dean Read, and Jim and Jean MacLellan. He earned a guaranteed starting spot in the BC Mile at Santa Anita on Oct. 25 but is ineligible to the Breeders' Cup program, and it would cost $180,000 to supplement him to the Mile.
As for defending Breeders' Cup Mile winner jockey Cornelio Velasquez offered no concrete excuses for the 2007 Woodbine Mile runner-up Kip Deville, who was beaten five lengths. "He did not try today," said Velasquez. "He wasn’t running. The position was fine. Whether he did not like the track, I don’t know."
Rolling 7's at Fairplex
Jockey Martin Pedroza who is known as the "king of the bull ring" and he is proving it already this year at Fariplex Park. In the first 3 days of racing Pedroza has twice won 7 races in a single day and has won with 17 of his first 32 races. Pedroza owns the single season record for victories at Fairplex Park with 51 and he looks like he is on his way to besting that mark this year.
www.southerncalracing.com
Friday, September 5, 2008
Horse Racing News : Breeders' Cup Plans and Implications
Rematch of 1-2 finishers of the Del Mar Futurity.
Midshipman and Coronet of a Baron, who finished a nose apart in a thrilling Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity on Wednesday's closing day, were already safely tucked into their new stalls at Santa Anita on Thursday morning and could face one another twice more in the next seven weeks there, in the Norfolk Stakes on Sept. 28 and then the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Oct. 25.
Plans for Del Mar Debutante winner.
Stardom Bound will likely make her next start in the Grade 1, $250,000 Oak Leaf Stakes at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meeting Sept. 27, according to Paasch. That will be her final prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 24.
For those of you who are interested in the upcoming Breeders' Cup here are some key races as we head towards the two day racing extravaganza. You may want to set your DVR to record these races over the weekend.
9/6 TP Turfway Park Fall Championships Marathon
9/7 WO Woodbine Mile Mile
Some good reading if you are interested in horses who could be headed towards the Breeders' Cup Distaff or the Filly/Mare Sprint
Timing and prestige more than distance is why Indian Blessing is running in Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Ruffian Handicap at Belmont Park.
Coming off two smashing Grade 1 sprint victories, Indian Blessing is setting herself up as the horse to beat in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at seven furlongs at Santa Anita on Oct. 24. In scouring the calendar for races to get to the Breeders' Cup, trainer Bob Baffert landed on the Ruffian, run around one turn at 1 1/16 miles.
The Ruffian, where Indian Blessing will face her elders for the first time, is five weeks removed from her seven-length romp in the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga. It will also give Indian Blessing 48 days to the Breeders' Cup.
Baffert said he is not necessarily trying to get Indian Blessing - last year's 2-year-old filly champion - a divisional championship. However, were she to win the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, Indian Blessing could become champion female sprinter.
Indian Blessing has run well at 1 1/16 miles in the past. She won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at that distance last October and took the Silverbulletday at that distance in February. Both of those wins were recorded in front-running fashion. The Breeders' Cup win was accomplished in the slop, conditions that could be prevalent Saturday should remnants from Tropical Storm Hanna arrive as forecasted.
"She loves off tracks," Baffert said.
Indian Blessing has demonstrated the ability to sit off another horse or two in her two Grade 1 sprint victories, but may find herself too quick for these early on going longer.
"They were sprinting, that's what makes it easier for her to relax," said John Velazquez, aboard for both the Prioress and Test wins. "I never rode her going long; I think she's pretty strong going long watching her. It all depends on post positions. If you get a post position where you can sit quietly with her and you can rate just a little bit in the middle of the track and give her a little chance, I think that's easier. Once you get committed to being on the inside of somebody, she's going to go."
Indian Blessing drew post 4, and the other speed horses, Little Belle and Rite Moment, are drawn in the first two posts. If Indian Blessing or Little Belle were to win the Ruffian, they would become the 11th 3-year-old to win this race, which was first contested in 1976.
Baffert also is running the 4-year-old Tough Tiz's Sis in the Ruffian. Tough Tiz's Sis is coming off two losses to distaff division leader Zenyatta. Tough Tiz's Sis won a stakes in March over the dirt course at Sunland Park. Last fall, she finished third in the Grade 1 Gazelle at Belmont. She is 0 for 3 on wet tracks.
"Tough Tiz's Sis, she always shows up, she always runs hard, she's solid," said Baffert, who also liked the timing of this race for Tough Tiz's Sis, who will be pointed to the BC Ladies Classic.
With defending Eclipse Award winner Ginger Punch awaiting the Beldame on Sept. 27, trainer Bobby Frankel and owner Frank Stronach will send out Spring Waltz in the Ruffian. Spring Waltz won three consecutive dirt races during the winter when conditioned by Bryan Lynch. In her first start for Frankel, Spring Waltz finished fourth to Hystericalady in the Delaware Handicap on July 13.
Frankel said Spring Waltz probably wasn't ready to run 1 1/4 miles that day, and he expects his 5-year-old mare to improve. However, he wasn't counting on Indian Blessing showing up.
"I don't know if we can beat Indian Blessing no matter how good she runs," Frankel said.
Little Belle won the Grade 1 Ashland in April over Keeneland's synthetic surface, and the Ruffian is designed to get her to the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland next month. Since the Ashland, Little Belle finished second in the Kentucky Oaks and Coaching Club American Oaks, and was third in the Alabama. She is cutting back from 1 1/4 miles in her last two starts to 1 1/16 miles.
"I'd like to think turning back is going to help her," said Rick Mettee, who oversees Godolphin Racing's New York string. "I don't know how much the 1-hole is going to hurt her."
Little Belle will be coupled with Stage Luck, who is owned by Sheikh Mohammed's Darley Stable. Stage Luck has not run since finishing fourth in the Next Move and, according to trainer Tom Albertrani, this will be her last start.
Rite Moment is 3 for 4 over wet tracks. Copper State finished second to Ginger Punch in the Go for Wand. Boca Grande is winless in seven starts since winning the Grade 2 Comely 17 months ago.
www.southerncalracing.com
Midshipman and Coronet of a Baron, who finished a nose apart in a thrilling Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity on Wednesday's closing day, were already safely tucked into their new stalls at Santa Anita on Thursday morning and could face one another twice more in the next seven weeks there, in the Norfolk Stakes on Sept. 28 and then the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Oct. 25.
Plans for Del Mar Debutante winner.
Stardom Bound will likely make her next start in the Grade 1, $250,000 Oak Leaf Stakes at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meeting Sept. 27, according to Paasch. That will be her final prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 24.
For those of you who are interested in the upcoming Breeders' Cup here are some key races as we head towards the two day racing extravaganza. You may want to set your DVR to record these races over the weekend.
9/6 TP Turfway Park Fall Championships Marathon
9/7 WO Woodbine Mile Mile
Some good reading if you are interested in horses who could be headed towards the Breeders' Cup Distaff or the Filly/Mare Sprint
Timing and prestige more than distance is why Indian Blessing is running in Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Ruffian Handicap at Belmont Park.
Coming off two smashing Grade 1 sprint victories, Indian Blessing is setting herself up as the horse to beat in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at seven furlongs at Santa Anita on Oct. 24. In scouring the calendar for races to get to the Breeders' Cup, trainer Bob Baffert landed on the Ruffian, run around one turn at 1 1/16 miles.
The Ruffian, where Indian Blessing will face her elders for the first time, is five weeks removed from her seven-length romp in the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga. It will also give Indian Blessing 48 days to the Breeders' Cup.
Baffert said he is not necessarily trying to get Indian Blessing - last year's 2-year-old filly champion - a divisional championship. However, were she to win the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, Indian Blessing could become champion female sprinter.
Indian Blessing has run well at 1 1/16 miles in the past. She won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at that distance last October and took the Silverbulletday at that distance in February. Both of those wins were recorded in front-running fashion. The Breeders' Cup win was accomplished in the slop, conditions that could be prevalent Saturday should remnants from Tropical Storm Hanna arrive as forecasted.
"She loves off tracks," Baffert said.
Indian Blessing has demonstrated the ability to sit off another horse or two in her two Grade 1 sprint victories, but may find herself too quick for these early on going longer.
"They were sprinting, that's what makes it easier for her to relax," said John Velazquez, aboard for both the Prioress and Test wins. "I never rode her going long; I think she's pretty strong going long watching her. It all depends on post positions. If you get a post position where you can sit quietly with her and you can rate just a little bit in the middle of the track and give her a little chance, I think that's easier. Once you get committed to being on the inside of somebody, she's going to go."
Indian Blessing drew post 4, and the other speed horses, Little Belle and Rite Moment, are drawn in the first two posts. If Indian Blessing or Little Belle were to win the Ruffian, they would become the 11th 3-year-old to win this race, which was first contested in 1976.
Baffert also is running the 4-year-old Tough Tiz's Sis in the Ruffian. Tough Tiz's Sis is coming off two losses to distaff division leader Zenyatta. Tough Tiz's Sis won a stakes in March over the dirt course at Sunland Park. Last fall, she finished third in the Grade 1 Gazelle at Belmont. She is 0 for 3 on wet tracks.
"Tough Tiz's Sis, she always shows up, she always runs hard, she's solid," said Baffert, who also liked the timing of this race for Tough Tiz's Sis, who will be pointed to the BC Ladies Classic.
With defending Eclipse Award winner Ginger Punch awaiting the Beldame on Sept. 27, trainer Bobby Frankel and owner Frank Stronach will send out Spring Waltz in the Ruffian. Spring Waltz won three consecutive dirt races during the winter when conditioned by Bryan Lynch. In her first start for Frankel, Spring Waltz finished fourth to Hystericalady in the Delaware Handicap on July 13.
Frankel said Spring Waltz probably wasn't ready to run 1 1/4 miles that day, and he expects his 5-year-old mare to improve. However, he wasn't counting on Indian Blessing showing up.
"I don't know if we can beat Indian Blessing no matter how good she runs," Frankel said.
Little Belle won the Grade 1 Ashland in April over Keeneland's synthetic surface, and the Ruffian is designed to get her to the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland next month. Since the Ashland, Little Belle finished second in the Kentucky Oaks and Coaching Club American Oaks, and was third in the Alabama. She is cutting back from 1 1/4 miles in her last two starts to 1 1/16 miles.
"I'd like to think turning back is going to help her," said Rick Mettee, who oversees Godolphin Racing's New York string. "I don't know how much the 1-hole is going to hurt her."
Little Belle will be coupled with Stage Luck, who is owned by Sheikh Mohammed's Darley Stable. Stage Luck has not run since finishing fourth in the Next Move and, according to trainer Tom Albertrani, this will be her last start.
Rite Moment is 3 for 4 over wet tracks. Copper State finished second to Ginger Punch in the Go for Wand. Boca Grande is winless in seven starts since winning the Grade 2 Comely 17 months ago.
www.southerncalracing.com
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Horse Racing News from Del Mar : Race Results
The 2008 Del Mar meeting came to a close yesterday and Midshipman captured the prestigious Closing Day feature, the Del Mar Futurity for trainer Bob Baffert. Jockey Tyler Baze was aboard the two year colt, who ran the seven furlongs in 1:23.35over the polytrack, which played much faster than it did in it's inaugural season at Del Mar. In other stakes action trainer Howard Zucker took both halves of the Daisycutter Handicap, as Synnin and Grinnin and Queen Ofthe Catsle raced to victory over the turf course. The other stakes event on the card was the Pirates Bounty Handicap, which was contested at six furlongs over the polytrack and longshot Delta Storm was victorious for trainer Mike Mitchell returning $88.00.
The main track played fair yesterday as horses were able to win on the pace and from off the pace. Horses that were close to the early pace had the best shot at winning. No real deep closers were able to win, they had to settle for minor rewards. Horses were able to win from the inside and the outside, so I did not detect any bias as far as what position horses were running on over the track yesterday. Horses coming winning from off the pace were on the outside, but that is to be expected. The final times were a little slow in some races, but for most part they were average.
The rails on grass course were down yesterday and the final times were fast. The two sprint races consisted of the split divisions of the Daisycutter Handicap for fillies and mares and was run at 5 furlongs. They were both finished in 55 and change, the first had a much quicker pace time of 43 and change and was won in gate to wire fashion by the red hot Synnin and Grinnin. The second race was won from off the pace as Queen Ofthe Catsle ran up the rail to capture the second half of the Daisycutter. The final turf race on the card and the meeting was for 25k claimers and Wild Buddy changed tactics, the speedball sat just off the pace to capture the 9 furlong event in fast 1:47.65.
www.souherncalracing.com
The main track played fair yesterday as horses were able to win on the pace and from off the pace. Horses that were close to the early pace had the best shot at winning. No real deep closers were able to win, they had to settle for minor rewards. Horses were able to win from the inside and the outside, so I did not detect any bias as far as what position horses were running on over the track yesterday. Horses coming winning from off the pace were on the outside, but that is to be expected. The final times were a little slow in some races, but for most part they were average.
The rails on grass course were down yesterday and the final times were fast. The two sprint races consisted of the split divisions of the Daisycutter Handicap for fillies and mares and was run at 5 furlongs. They were both finished in 55 and change, the first had a much quicker pace time of 43 and change and was won in gate to wire fashion by the red hot Synnin and Grinnin. The second race was won from off the pace as Queen Ofthe Catsle ran up the rail to capture the second half of the Daisycutter. The final turf race on the card and the meeting was for 25k claimers and Wild Buddy changed tactics, the speedball sat just off the pace to capture the 9 furlong event in fast 1:47.65.
www.souherncalracing.com
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Horse Racing News from Del Mar : A future star in the Futurity?
It is Closing Day where the "turf meets the surf" and the feature is the Grade One Del Mar Futurity for 2 year olds to be run at 7 furlongs over the polytrack. The morning line favorite is Midshapman (3-1), who is trained by Bob Baffert and will be ridden by Tyler Baze. My choice is #11 Believe in Hope (9/2), who is trained by Ron Ellis and will be ridden by Joe Talamo, who replaces the recently injured Jose Valdivia.
I am making Believe in Hope my choice, because of the similarities I have found between him and Declan's Moon who won the Futurity for these same connections a few years back and went on to be named Eclipse Award winning two year male. First, they both won at first asking going 5.5 furlongs, second they both did it from an inside post, which is hard to do younger unraced horses, one won at 14-1 the other 13-1 and finally they both had a seven furlong work prior to the running of the Futurity. Trainer Ron Ellis is ultra patient with his horses and for him to put this colt in this spot today makes me think he is up to the challenge. All the signs point towards a big effort toady and what I think is a bright future for Believe in Hope.
A brief look at the other entrants from inside/out:
Wild Wild Posse is a recent maiden winner at first asking for trainer Doug O'Neil.
Southern Exchange is undefeated and is shipping in from Canada, will be ridden by top jock Garrett Gomez. All wins cam over polytrack.
Midshipamn is another recent maiden winner at first asking for trainer Bob Baffert, who has had his fair share of success in the Futurity.
Coronet of a Baron ran a solid race in the Grade 2 Best Pal at Del Mar. First time in from the midwest.
Kelly Leak was the original winner of the Best Pal before being disqualified for causing interference.
Kerwin's Way is a maiden and a surprise entry.
Street Hero is still a maiden due to traffic problems, but seems to have the ability to compete with these.
Blazing Spirit is also a maiden, who has shown a bit of ability finishing right behind Arashi Cat, who would have gotten some play in here.
Mensa Heat broke his maiden first out versus claimers and was scratched to go here today.
Escalon broke his maiden first out impressively for Doug O'Neil and has a look in here.
That concludes my look at today's Del Mar Futurity from Del Mar, which is also a look into the future of horse racing as we approach the Breeders' Cup and further down the road the Triple Crown.
Are you interested in FREE selections at Del Mar 2 hours prior to first post? If so, opt into my website http://www.southerncalracing.com/ and receive this valuable information prior to it going back up to $30 a month. If you have a problem opting in please email me at info@soutnerncalracing.com
I am making Believe in Hope my choice, because of the similarities I have found between him and Declan's Moon who won the Futurity for these same connections a few years back and went on to be named Eclipse Award winning two year male. First, they both won at first asking going 5.5 furlongs, second they both did it from an inside post, which is hard to do younger unraced horses, one won at 14-1 the other 13-1 and finally they both had a seven furlong work prior to the running of the Futurity. Trainer Ron Ellis is ultra patient with his horses and for him to put this colt in this spot today makes me think he is up to the challenge. All the signs point towards a big effort toady and what I think is a bright future for Believe in Hope.
A brief look at the other entrants from inside/out:
Wild Wild Posse is a recent maiden winner at first asking for trainer Doug O'Neil.
Southern Exchange is undefeated and is shipping in from Canada, will be ridden by top jock Garrett Gomez. All wins cam over polytrack.
Midshipamn is another recent maiden winner at first asking for trainer Bob Baffert, who has had his fair share of success in the Futurity.
Coronet of a Baron ran a solid race in the Grade 2 Best Pal at Del Mar. First time in from the midwest.
Kelly Leak was the original winner of the Best Pal before being disqualified for causing interference.
Kerwin's Way is a maiden and a surprise entry.
Street Hero is still a maiden due to traffic problems, but seems to have the ability to compete with these.
Blazing Spirit is also a maiden, who has shown a bit of ability finishing right behind Arashi Cat, who would have gotten some play in here.
Mensa Heat broke his maiden first out versus claimers and was scratched to go here today.
Escalon broke his maiden first out impressively for Doug O'Neil and has a look in here.
That concludes my look at today's Del Mar Futurity from Del Mar, which is also a look into the future of horse racing as we approach the Breeders' Cup and further down the road the Triple Crown.
Are you interested in FREE selections at Del Mar 2 hours prior to first post? If so, opt into my website http://www.southerncalracing.com/ and receive this valuable information prior to it going back up to $30 a month. If you have a problem opting in please email me at info@soutnerncalracing.com
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)